Watching the Skies

Hey folks, looks like all of north Texas will receive some snowfall yet again on Tuesday Feb 23. Counties south of I-20 are currently under a Winter Storm Watch with forecasts estimating 4+ inches of snow, while counties in and north of the metroplex are forecast to receive 1-3 inches. Isolated areas of the southern metroplex could receive 4-5 inches, while areas south of I-20 could receive up to 8 inches! Expect additional Winter Storm Watches and Warnings to be issued Monday morning as this event approaches.

Snowfall for our region will begin around 3am, and last through until 6pm. Temperatures will sit near or at freezing, so accumulations will be light to moderate. Icing will be possible on bridges during the day, while well traveled roadways may not be too adversely affected. Temperatures overnight will reach the high 20s so icing on bridges and untraveled roadways will become likely and hinder travel for Wednesday morning. Temps for Wednesday will reach the mid 40s so accumulations will likely melt clear away.

Some additional things to mention here however… I'm sure alot of you have noticed that this season's snowfall forecasts have been somewhat inaccurate. December 24th's forecast was 1-2 inches, with 3.0 inches actually falling; February 11's forecast was less than 1 inch only 24 hours before the snow began falling, with the end result being 12.5 inches. So, take snowfall estimates with a grain of salt as they tend to be subject to huge errors, and anticipate the worst.

Secondly, DFW airport's winter season snowfall record could easily be broken with this Tuesday's snowfall event. Currently the 2009-2010 season sits at 15.7 inches of snowfall total placing us in the number 2 spot. With just an additional 2.0 inches of snow we would become the snowiest year in Dallas' history!

Finally I will close with a comment from the most recent forecast discussion provided by the National Weather Service: EL NINO WINTERS…YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.

February 11, 2010 broke the all-time snowfall record for any calendar day and any 24-hour period with 11.2 inches of snow, as of midnight. This surpasses the previous daily record of 1.4 inches on Feb 11, 1988. This also exceeds our 24-hour record of 7.5 inches on Feb 17, 1978 and Feb 25, 1924. Lastly this breaks our greatest calendar-day snowfall total of 7.8 inches from January 15, 1964 and January 14, 1917.

Thursday’s snowfall has brought our seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches, the 3rd snowiest winter on record for DFW. Had there been no other snowfall events this entire season, our winter would have still made the top five snowiest, wow! Below are snowfall totals reported as of 11:30pm 2/11/10.

The impacts from this snowfall will be felt quite heavily the morning of Friday February 12th with heavy snowfall accumulations on area roads, plus icing on roadways and bridges. Afternoon temperatures for Friday have been revised downward to 38 degrees. This means snow will melt significantly but not all of it will melt before re-freezing overnight through Saturday. Expect icing conditions Saturday morning as well. Saturday high temps will reach the 50s and any remaining snow will melt off.

Additionally, I walked around and snapped some great pictures with my camera this evening. I have attached the updated gallery below.

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Public Information Statement issued by the National Weather Service as of Midnight 2/12/10:

...Snow event one for the record books...

At midnight...dfw Airport had recorded 11.2 inches of snow today.
This breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches
set in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches...which is
the 3rd highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   14.4   2009-10*
   4   13.5   1923-24
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2   11.2   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2   11.2   February 12, 2010*
   3    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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The latest from the National Weather Service, snowfall today now shatters the previous record at DFW Airport. A whopping 7.9 inches 11.2 inches of snow has fallen today 2/11/10, surpassing the previous single calendar day record of 7.8 inches set on 1/15/1964 and 1/14/1917.  The real kicker, snowfall is set to continue for a few more hours! This makes February 11th the snowiest calendar day, and snowiest 24 hour period in the history of DFW Airport. This winter season is now the 4th 3rd snowiest winter on record at 11.1 14.4 inches total. Details below…

...Snow event one for the record books...

At 7 PM...dfw Airport had recorded 7.9 inches of snow today. This
breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches set
in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 11.1 inches...which is
the 4th highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   13.5   1923-24
   4   11.1   2009-10*
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2    7.9   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   3    7.9   February 11, 2010*
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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Some images from my Flickr of this record breaking snowfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

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Brief snowfall update, time is limited so I will provide a narration, courtesy of the National Weather Service…
6.2 inches of snow so far at DFW airport, and counting. Today is snowiest 24-hour period on record since February 17, 1978.
Snowfall totals for today now increased up to 9 inches, with isolated areas of 10 inches!

Fairly heavy snowfall across parts of north Texas, with at least half of north Texas receiving some type of snowfall. Heaviest accumulations in the region occurred in northwest Texas near Bowie and Jacksboro with 9 inches of snowfall! Area roads have been completely shut down for most of the night.

Road conditions will remain trecherous through the first half of Christmas day as accumulated ice slowly melts off. However drier weather and temperatures rising just above freezing should help most of the ice and snow to melt away. There will still be some icy patches on the roads overnight tonight however.

Temps through the weekend will remain cool, dropping below freezing every night, rising to the low to mid 40s during the day.

The next storm system is still expected to move through this upcoming Tuesday, and may bring chances of more winter precipitation. A rain/snow mix may occur north of I-20, while a rain/sleet mix may occur south of I-20. This forecast is subject to large changes however, with several days out till this next event, there is some uncertainty.

Update: 5:56pm – Visiblele satellite shows the large extent of snowfall coverage across the region. A friend also advised me while traveling along I-35 north twards Oklahoma City, that at least 142 cars were stranded along the road!

The rollercoaster weather continues for the region, with temps reaching the mid 50s this afternoon when skies briefly cleared out. Not sure if anyone noticed but a gravity wave passed overhead around 5pm, always a cool feature to watch. This was in result to the very strong low pressure system that is impacting the country creating significant winter weather for the upper midwest. Gravity waves have crests and troughs like waves in the ocean, but the crests of gravity waves tend to cause moisture to condense into clouds, forming long and linear clouds in multiple rows like waves. I did not get an opportunity to go outside and take a picture of this before it was too dark but i did get a screenshot of the satellite view.

In the short term, a cold front will pass through the metroplex near midnight resulting in significantly colder temperatures and very gusty northwestern winds.

Temps are forecast to rapidly drop from around 49 degrees now, to near 20 degrees by sunrise. Winds may be gusting to 45mph around sunrise as well, creating very hazardous wind chills around 15 degrees! Everyone make sure you wear your heavy winter clothing before going outside Wednesday morning.

The weather rollercoaster continues every day the next 7 days with temps warming to 49 high/38 low by Friday. Rain may occur on Friday, but temps appear to be warm enough to prevent any freezing rain but this is worth monitoring. Then another storm system rolls through Monday/Tuesday with some potential for freezing rain.

Aside from a minimal possibility of freezing rain Friday, and a slight chance of freezing rain Monday night, no other winter precipitation or severe weather is expected the next 7 days.

Good question Sean, here’s the answer:

This, in case anyone was curious why we received no snow in the metroplex today… Moisture in the lower atmosphere was quite limited, resulting in very minimal snow aloft which actually evaporated before reaching the ground, also known as virga. While temperatures in our area were highly supportive of snowfall, limited moisture prevented any from developing. Much richer moisture was available to our south, combined with the same favorable temperatures for snowfall, and resulted in the 2nd year in a row Houston has received snow. The diagram in the picture above shows a simplified Skew-T drawing, which compares several factors including temperature and moisture throughout the atmosphere from the surface to 60,000+ feet.

Fret not though, there still may be additional snowfall potential this year yet. In the short term we have another storm system moving rapidly through this Sunday, then again Tuesday/Wednesday. The system on Tuesday/Wednesday has a potential for snowfall, but is dependent on temperatures which may be slightly too warm. Decembers in north Texas can be an “up/down roller coaster” as described by the National Weather Service, so drastic weather changes between extreme cold, to moderate temps and windy are likely, as is forecast the next 7 days. No severe weather is anticipated for the next 7 days so far.

Got a nice early morning wakeup call today to take a look outside… to a nice wet snowfall. Air temps are 34 degrees, while surface soil temperatures are higher. This means the snow that falls will still continue to generate a low amount of accumulation, but areas of accumulating slush on sidewalks and roadways will still pose a safety hazard. Be careful on the roads everyone! Provide ample stopping time and take your time around corners. It may not be ice, but it is still slippery.

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Heavier snow is possible across the region on Friday now as well… the immediate DFW Metroplex may receive only a light snow shower on Friday. Areas outside the urban heat bubble that are south of I-20 will receive heavier snow up to 2 inches.

…Snow expected Friday for much of North Texas…

A strong upper level storm system will move across North Texas on
Friday. With a cold airmass established over the region…the potent
upper level disturbance will trigger areas of snow on Friday.

Flurries will be possible late Thursday night and early Friday
morning over far western sections of North Texas…generally along
and west of a Bowie to Weatherford to Lampasas line. Little to no
accumulation is expected with this activity.

Heavier snow will likely develop by the mid morning hours Friday and
continue through the evening…mainly south of Interstate 20.
Periods of flurries and some light snow showers will also be
possible Friday in the immediate Dallas Fort Worth Metro area.

Locations along and south of a line from Cisco to Hillsboro to
Palestine will have the best chance at witnessing accumulating
snowfall…with around one inch possible. Isolated locations may
receive up to 2 inches of snow.

This event continues to develop. The timing and location of the
snowfall…as well as expected accumulations may change over the
coming days. Please keep updated with the latest forecasts and any
possible winter weather advisories from your National Weather
Service in Fort Worth.

I have been meaning to get this sent out for 5 days now and just never get a chance! October broke the record for fewest amount of sunshine ever recorded at DFW Airport for the month. Additionally October finished out as the 7th rainiest on record, with well below average temperatures.

For October, DFW Airport recorded only 8798 minutes of sunshine, officially marking this October as the gloomiest on record. The previous record holder was 9302 minutes set in 1984. This works out to only 40% sunshine during daylight hours, or 60% cloud cover average for the month. Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fwd&storyid=35837&source=0

The month also finished out in 7th place for precipitation with 8.05 inches at DFW. The record was 14.18 inches set in 1981 so there was no chance at breaking this. Out of 31 possible days, 18 days recorded measurable precipitation, 20 days reported some form of precipitation, 8 days with thunderstorms, 19 days with fog. We were nearly double the normal October precipitation, receiving 3.94 inches more than average. Source: http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=fwd

Lastly the month of October was significantly cooler than average as well, I believe we ranked within the top 10 coolest Octobers on record too, though I cannot find the exact numbers on this right now. Average temp was 62.7, 4.5 degrees lower than average. The month was very mild, with no temperatures higher than 90, or lower than 32. Additionally overnight lows were never higher than 80 degrees. I’d say this was a very comfortable month for temperatures. Source: http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=fwd

So far in November we are off to a very comfortable start, clear skies and very mild temperatures that are favorable for leaving the windows open all day and night. The conditions will continue until possibly Sunday evening through Tuesday when a weak cold front will be in the vicinity and bump rain chances to around 20%. I will keep an eye on this, but so far this does not look to be much more than a rain event.