Watching the Skies

Hey folks, looks like all of north Texas will receive some snowfall yet again on Tuesday Feb 23. Counties south of I-20 are currently under a Winter Storm Watch with forecasts estimating 4+ inches of snow, while counties in and north of the metroplex are forecast to receive 1-3 inches. Isolated areas of the southern metroplex could receive 4-5 inches, while areas south of I-20 could receive up to 8 inches! Expect additional Winter Storm Watches and Warnings to be issued Monday morning as this event approaches.

Snowfall for our region will begin around 3am, and last through until 6pm. Temperatures will sit near or at freezing, so accumulations will be light to moderate. Icing will be possible on bridges during the day, while well traveled roadways may not be too adversely affected. Temperatures overnight will reach the high 20s so icing on bridges and untraveled roadways will become likely and hinder travel for Wednesday morning. Temps for Wednesday will reach the mid 40s so accumulations will likely melt clear away.

Some additional things to mention here however… I'm sure alot of you have noticed that this season's snowfall forecasts have been somewhat inaccurate. December 24th's forecast was 1-2 inches, with 3.0 inches actually falling; February 11's forecast was less than 1 inch only 24 hours before the snow began falling, with the end result being 12.5 inches. So, take snowfall estimates with a grain of salt as they tend to be subject to huge errors, and anticipate the worst.

Secondly, DFW airport's winter season snowfall record could easily be broken with this Tuesday's snowfall event. Currently the 2009-2010 season sits at 15.7 inches of snowfall total placing us in the number 2 spot. With just an additional 2.0 inches of snow we would become the snowiest year in Dallas' history!

Finally I will close with a comment from the most recent forecast discussion provided by the National Weather Service: EL NINO WINTERS…YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.

February 11, 2010 broke the all-time snowfall record for any calendar day and any 24-hour period with 11.2 inches of snow, as of midnight. This surpasses the previous daily record of 1.4 inches on Feb 11, 1988. This also exceeds our 24-hour record of 7.5 inches on Feb 17, 1978 and Feb 25, 1924. Lastly this breaks our greatest calendar-day snowfall total of 7.8 inches from January 15, 1964 and January 14, 1917.

Thursday’s snowfall has brought our seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches, the 3rd snowiest winter on record for DFW. Had there been no other snowfall events this entire season, our winter would have still made the top five snowiest, wow! Below are snowfall totals reported as of 11:30pm 2/11/10.

The impacts from this snowfall will be felt quite heavily the morning of Friday February 12th with heavy snowfall accumulations on area roads, plus icing on roadways and bridges. Afternoon temperatures for Friday have been revised downward to 38 degrees. This means snow will melt significantly but not all of it will melt before re-freezing overnight through Saturday. Expect icing conditions Saturday morning as well. Saturday high temps will reach the 50s and any remaining snow will melt off.

Additionally, I walked around and snapped some great pictures with my camera this evening. I have attached the updated gallery below.

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Public Information Statement issued by the National Weather Service as of Midnight 2/12/10:

...Snow event one for the record books...

At midnight...dfw Airport had recorded 11.2 inches of snow today.
This breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches
set in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches...which is
the 3rd highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   14.4   2009-10*
   4   13.5   1923-24
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2   11.2   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2   11.2   February 12, 2010*
   3    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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The latest from the National Weather Service, snowfall today now shatters the previous record at DFW Airport. A whopping 7.9 inches 11.2 inches of snow has fallen today 2/11/10, surpassing the previous single calendar day record of 7.8 inches set on 1/15/1964 and 1/14/1917.  The real kicker, snowfall is set to continue for a few more hours! This makes February 11th the snowiest calendar day, and snowiest 24 hour period in the history of DFW Airport. This winter season is now the 4th 3rd snowiest winter on record at 11.1 14.4 inches total. Details below…

...Snow event one for the record books...

At 7 PM...dfw Airport had recorded 7.9 inches of snow today. This
breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches set
in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 11.1 inches...which is
the 4th highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   13.5   1923-24
   4   11.1   2009-10*
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2    7.9   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   3    7.9   February 11, 2010*
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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Some images from my Flickr of this record breaking snowfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

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Brief snowfall update, time is limited so I will provide a narration, courtesy of the National Weather Service…
6.2 inches of snow so far at DFW airport, and counting. Today is snowiest 24-hour period on record since February 17, 1978.
Snowfall totals for today now increased up to 9 inches, with isolated areas of 10 inches!

Record snowfall today at DFW Airport of 0.2 inches, breaking the previous record of a trace.

…Record daily maximum snowfall set at Dallas/Fort Worth…

A record snowfall of 0.2 inches was set at dfw Airport today. This
is the first measurable snowfall on record for December 29. Trace
snowfall amounts were previously recorded on this date in 1925…
1954…and 1969.

Hey folks… we may see another bout of snowfall to most of north Texas on Tuesday during the day. Current forecasts place us right around within a few degrees of freezing at the start of the event, and just below through the evening and night. This means for around an hour or so Tuesday, the precipitation may fall as rain then transition to snow. Since the ground has been chilled significantly from the Christmas Eve snowfall, there is a chance this precipitation could freeze to open surfaces quicker than it did last week. This means another round of dangerous ice wide spread throughout the area.

Extended forecasts beyond Thursday get a little more difficult. Northern areas may see some light snow flurries on Thursday. Things should dry out and warm up slightly beyond Thursday, for the weekend. Extended forecasts have continuously warned about an extremely frigid air mass that will descend from Siberia, across northern Canada and impact the United States. There are significant discrepancies in this forecast now, but the weather service is concerned about this possibility. If this unfolds as forecast now, we may be looking at significant cold weather, record setting even. Timing on this would likely be maybe 9-10 days out, or sometime after January 5.

I’ll send updates as needed.

Fairly heavy snowfall across parts of north Texas, with at least half of north Texas receiving some type of snowfall. Heaviest accumulations in the region occurred in northwest Texas near Bowie and Jacksboro with 9 inches of snowfall! Area roads have been completely shut down for most of the night.

Road conditions will remain trecherous through the first half of Christmas day as accumulated ice slowly melts off. However drier weather and temperatures rising just above freezing should help most of the ice and snow to melt away. There will still be some icy patches on the roads overnight tonight however.

Temps through the weekend will remain cool, dropping below freezing every night, rising to the low to mid 40s during the day.

The next storm system is still expected to move through this upcoming Tuesday, and may bring chances of more winter precipitation. A rain/snow mix may occur north of I-20, while a rain/sleet mix may occur south of I-20. This forecast is subject to large changes however, with several days out till this next event, there is some uncertainty.

Update: 5:56pm – Visiblele satellite shows the large extent of snowfall coverage across the region. A friend also advised me while traveling along I-35 north twards Oklahoma City, that at least 142 cars were stranded along the road!

DFW Airport reported 3.0 inches of snowfall As of 6:29pm 12/24/09, DFW Airport recorded 2.3 inches of snowfall, far exceeding the previous record for this date of a trace. Snowfall is starting to end across the metroplex and should be over by 9 to 10pm in all areas. Temperatures are forecast to drop to the low 20s across the region so any ice or snow accumulations in place now, will persist all night until Christmas day. Temps on Christmas day will rise above freezing in the afternoon, allowing the snow/ice to mostly melt off.

Road conditions around the region are in horrible shape. Numerous roads to our north and west have been closed including I-35 through most of Oklahoma. In fact, all interstates in the Oklahoma City metro area have been shut down for most of the afternoon.

I will send more complete updates after the snowfall ends and additional weather reports come in… Below is most recent daily climate report from DFW Airport:

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

...................................

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 24 2009...
VALID TODAY AS OF 600 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2009

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         53    113 AM  88    1955  55     -2       57
  MINIMUM         29    626 PM   7    1983  35     -6       39
  AVERAGE         41

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.42          1.41 1975   0.08   0.34     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    1.49                      2.04  -0.55     0.12
  SINCE DEC 1      1.49                      2.04  -0.55     0.12
  SINCE JAN 1     40.53                     34.20   6.33    26.95

SNOWFALL (IN)
  TODAY            2.3 R         T    2002   0.0    2.3      0.0
                                      1975
                                      1943
  MONTH TO DATE    2.3                       T      2.3       T
  SINCE DEC 1      2.3                       T      2.3       T
  SINCE JUL 1      2.3                       0.2    2.1       T
  SNOW DEPTH       0

..................................................................

WIND (MPH)
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    38   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (310)
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    46   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NW (300)
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    20.4

..........................................................

THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   55        78      1934
                                             1922
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   35         6      1983

SUNRISE AND SUNSET
DECEMBER 24 2009......SUNRISE   728 AM CST   SUNSET   527 PM CST
DECEMBER 25 2009......SUNRISE   729 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST

-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

Update as of 7:49pm: DFW Airport now reports 3.0 inches of snowfall so far today:

...Record daily maximum snowfall set at Dallas/Fort Worth...

A record snowfall of 3.0 inches was set at dfw Airport today. This
is the first measurable snowfall on record for Christmas eve. Trace
snowfall amounts were previously recorded on December 24 in 1924...
1926...1943...1975...and 2002.

Last minute forecast change here… the very strong low pressure system that was forecast to move over Oklahoma, keeps tracking further south than anticipated. The most recent forecast update now tracks the low pressure system across north Texas, making snow chances on Christmas Eve a likelihood! The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory has been issued mainly due to the high winds also expected behind the cold front. Wind chills will be very low, likely in the teens for Thursday morning. Winds of 30 gusting to 45, will create a very hazardous driving situation with near blizzard like conditions on the roadways. Surface air temperatures and ground soil temps will sit right around or just above freezing, so icing or snow accumulation shouldn’t be a major factor but is still worth mentioning. Temps during the day Thursday will rise to around 40 last I checked, but these high temps may get revised downward since snow is now likely.

Today’s severe weather threat did not materialize for our immediate area, but tornadoes did occur to our east. Tornado damage was reported in the town of Longview, TX which is 113 miles east.

Cold temperatures will persist through the weekend, with freezing temperatures nightly. The next storm system may move through this upcoming Monday or Tuesday with a chance of winter precipitation, however this forecast has somewhat low confidence at this time.