Looks like the autumn months of September through November achieved the wettest autumn on record since 1981, the 4th wettest autumn on record. Looks like El Nino is meeting its expectations so far this season…

Dallas/Fort Worth – Autumn Precipitation Extremes

(September through November)

Wettest Rank Total (in.) Year 1 18.11 1981 2 16.88 1919 3 16.37 1964 4 16.33 2009 5 16.07 1973 6 15.61 1994 7 15.47 1913 8 15.29 1974 9 14.97 1991 10 14.02 1932

Driest Rank Total (in.) Year 1 1.29 1975 2 1.66 1921 3 2.06 1938 4 2.27 2005 5 2.67 1912 6 2.78 1948 7 (tie) 3.03 1995 3.03 1910 9 3.22 1963 10 3.30 1898

Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfall

Storms are approaching the western side of the metroplex, moving NE at around 25 knots. I don’t see even a single lightning bolt appearing on my radar viewer which I suspect may be an error. Timing puts these storms around 3:10pm to Benbrook, 3:20pm to Watauga, and 4:15pm to Frisco. The storms have gusty winds but are not at severe criteria. I also see no hail with these storms… so the only thing worth mentioning at this time is the very heavy downpour and gusty winds with the storm passage.

I have been meaning to get this sent out for 5 days now and just never get a chance! October broke the record for fewest amount of sunshine ever recorded at DFW Airport for the month. Additionally October finished out as the 7th rainiest on record, with well below average temperatures.

For October, DFW Airport recorded only 8798 minutes of sunshine, officially marking this October as the gloomiest on record. The previous record holder was 9302 minutes set in 1984. This works out to only 40% sunshine during daylight hours, or 60% cloud cover average for the month. Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fwd&storyid=35837&source=0

The month also finished out in 7th place for precipitation with 8.05 inches at DFW. The record was 14.18 inches set in 1981 so there was no chance at breaking this. Out of 31 possible days, 18 days recorded measurable precipitation, 20 days reported some form of precipitation, 8 days with thunderstorms, 19 days with fog. We were nearly double the normal October precipitation, receiving 3.94 inches more than average. Source: http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=fwd

Lastly the month of October was significantly cooler than average as well, I believe we ranked within the top 10 coolest Octobers on record too, though I cannot find the exact numbers on this right now. Average temp was 62.7, 4.5 degrees lower than average. The month was very mild, with no temperatures higher than 90, or lower than 32. Additionally overnight lows were never higher than 80 degrees. I’d say this was a very comfortable month for temperatures. Source: http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=fwd

So far in November we are off to a very comfortable start, clear skies and very mild temperatures that are favorable for leaving the windows open all day and night. The conditions will continue until possibly Sunday evening through Tuesday when a weak cold front will be in the vicinity and bump rain chances to around 20%. I will keep an eye on this, but so far this does not look to be much more than a rain event.

-- Weather in DFW Airport when posted --
Temp: 66.2 °F, Humidity: 58%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Rainfall totals continue to increase with widespread light rainfall across most of north Texas. I re-checked earlier today and DFW Airport’s total rainfall had increased, now bumping us up to the 7th rainiest October. Below is measured rainfall totals as of approximately 7:00am Monday morning. This is provided by the CoCoRaHS network, volunteers around the country who provide daily rainfall reports. The highest amount reported is 3.55 inches in extreme north Collin County. This area is very close to the area where radar estimates 6.35 inches in roughly the same time period. Looks like most of the Metroplex received a very healthy amount of rainfall, bouncing around 0.75 inches up through 2 inches.

Below is radar estimated precipitation totals since Sunday at 6pm. A very large area south and east of the Metroplex received well over 4 inches of rainfall. This should help remove any patchy areas of drought still remaining in these areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday should clear up with cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies. The rain should hopefully clear up overnight and be clear for Tuesday, we will see though. Next up, thunderstorms are likely this upcoming Thursday, with the Storm Prediction Center having a high degree of confidence that severe weather will occur here as well. I will give updates in more detail later since it is so late right now.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 48.2 °F, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Now that the heaviest rains are beginning to exist the Metroplex as they move east, I will send a brief update on tonight’s severe weather impacts. Only a few reports of high winds around the area, none of them reporting any damage so far. Several large hail reports in Parker, Tarrant, Denton and Cooke counties. One report of lightning striking a home in Trenton, 30 miles NE of Frisco, though damage is unknown at this time. Flooding impacts however are notable… several high water rescues have been reported in Fort Worth due to flooding rains stranding motorists or entering houses. Extreme north Collin county shows an estimated 6.24 inches of rainfall in the last 5 hours! The city of Celina, just 12 miles north of Frisco is embedded in a swath of the heaviest rains, reporting flood waters entering houses as well. There are also some road closures due to high waters south, and west of McKinney.

Attached is rainfall estimates since 6:22pm Sunday 10/25. You can see the area 2.5 miles north of Weston, or extreme north Collin and south Grayson counties showing up to 6.24 inches of rain. This is a result of several thunderstorms training across this area. Frisco by comparison is estimated around 1.17 inches, and only 19 miles south of the heaviest rainfall.

Since moving to Frisco Texas a year ago I have seen the terminology ‘In Texas it takes a flood to end a drought’ used quite a few times, now I understand why that phrase is quite accurate. So far for the month of October DFW Airport has recorded 7.09 inches of rainfall, placing us 4.12 inches above normal. Currently this October is ranked the 8th rainiest and we still have 8 calendar days left to go. The number 1 rainiest October beats all others by a very large margin at 14.18 inches in 1981 so we are likely not to break this record. However we are in striking distance of the number 2 spot which is 9.44 inches set in 1919. With at least two to three more rain days in the forecast this month we very well make the number two spot. On a side note, average temperatures this month are below normal with the October 2009 average being 65.0 and the October normal temp of 68.4. I will try to find out cloud cover percentages of this month vs normal and vs records later on… its a bit harder to find that info.

Precipitation totals for the year are also well above normal… At this time precipitation is at 36.32 inches since Jan 1, or 7.87 inches above normal. Normal annual rainfall is 37.05 inches so if we received no additional rainfall the rest of the year, we would be only 0.73 inches below normal.

The rainfall from Wednesday made up a significant portion of this month’s totals with the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth receiving the most rain at 5.81 inches. Most locations received 3 to 4 inches of rainfall during Wednesday. Some river and stream flooding is still occurring at this time including the Trinity River in Dallas, and the Denton creek near Justin. The Trinity River in Dallas is currently sitting at 36.4 feet, or 6.4 feet above flood stage.

Regarding the drought conditions in central and southern Texas… the recent rainfalls have made significant improvements to lessening the drought impacts to our south, and virtually eliminated drought conditions in all of north Texas. A small area of coastal south Texas around Corpus Christi is still in the ‘Exceptional’ drought classification, the highest possible. This area however is very tiny, in comparison to just 3 months ago when over 20% of Texas was in an Exceptional drought status. With current climate forecasts showing the weak El Nino conditions persisting throughout winter and thus above average precipitation for our region, I would expect nearly all drought in Texas to be wiped out in the next few months.

With any drought or unusual dryness you have to consider large fire impacts as well… With the abundant rainfall in the late growing season for Texas, vegetation will sprout new growth before going dormant after the first hard freeze. The hard freeze tends to dry out plant life and create excellent fuel for large wildfires during the winter and early spring. However the above average rainfall forecast for this Winter should dampen any wide spread fire impacts. Due to this, the winter looks to present a relatively low hazard for wildfires.

This information is considered ‘preliminary’ from the National Weather Service, and obtained directly from the website for NWS Fort Worth at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 51.8 °F, Humidity: 58%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Several Flash Flood Warnings are issued for Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Grayson, Cooke and other counties around the area. A band of very heavy rainfall has fallen creating flooding conditions most notably around Fort Worth where several high water rescues have been taking place after motorists get stranded in high waters. Additionally the Trinity river at Dallas is surpassing flood stage at this time, and is forecast to exceed flood stage by 4 feet. At 34 feet several low water crossings will flood. This heavy rainfall will continue for a few more hours at least until the cold front passes through Thursday before sunrise. The rain will likely come to an end sometime around 3am to 5am I am thinking. Until then, plan for continuous heavy rain and flash flooding potential.

Here is the storm total rainfall amounts so far, this is since 1:21am Wednesday morning. Blue areas are reaching up to 5.8 inches of rainfall. The green polygons indicate current Flash Flood Warnings, the green and blue FFL icons indicate reports of Flash Flooding including road closures and high water rescues.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 60.8 °F, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

A band of moderate to heavy rainfall is sitting stationary just south and east of the DFW Metroplex, prompting Flash Flood Warnings and even a high water rescue in the city of Terrell.  Rain totals in these areas since 6 pm Monday are around 2.25 inches estimated, showing that the soil is so heavily saturated and unable to absorb any more rainfall.

Below is radar estimated rainfall since 6pm Monday, you can easily see the areas where rainfall is most concentrated… the Green FFL icons indicate reports of Flash Flooding, the green polygons show current Flash Flood Warnings.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 64.4 °F, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Hey everyone… looks like the end is near for these overcast skies. Last weekend ended up being overcast both days despite the previous forecasts for clear skies both days. This weekend we will try again with conditions clearing up Thursday and remaining clear through Sunday. Until then, expect rainy conditions from midnight Tuesday morning through mid-afternoon to maybe sundown, with some embedded heavy rains and occasional thunder.

Wednesday has 20% rain chances during the day and 40% in the evening with overcast skies. The Storm Prediction Center has a very small area from DFW and just to our east under a ‘Slight’ severe storm risk for Wednesday. The risk will be mainly isolated in nature as a strong atmospheric cap will be in place supressing storm development. However conditions aside from this cap are quite favorable for severe storm development, meaning any storms that do develop will become severe and likely supercellular in structure. Any supercells that develop will possibly have a tornado threat associated with them, so I will keep an eye on this for everyone. The SPC mentioned these storms will be quasi-discrete meaning individual supercells could develop along a dry line, rather than the unbroken squall line we typically see. Supercell storms produce large hail, high winds, and can generate tornadoes , so again I will keep an eye on this and see how this evolves.

Wednesday and Thursday warm up a tad with highs near 80 and lows in the mid 60s. The end of the week and weekend will cool off under the clear skies, highs in the upper 60s, lows in the upper 40s.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 60.8 °F, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Rainfall is coming to an end for today as the cold front sinks further to the southeast. Flooding isn’t as wide spread or severe as anticipated likely due to the lack of rainfall during the day Thursday, as had been previously forecast. Temperatures for the next several days will be significantly cooler, including lows in the mid 40s the next two nights! Saturday and Sunday look to have partly cloudy skies, highs in the mid 60s and lows from mid 40s to low 50s.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 53.6 °F, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a