Watching the Skies

Hey Texans, it’s been a bit since I sent out the last e-mails. However, being a severe weather enthusiast, my days brighten when your days darken.(maybe a new catch phrase?) Anyways, our first batch of spring time storms moved through the area Sunday and Monday. They even produced the first two spring time tornadoes of the year in western Oklahoma.

Another batch of thunderstorms is set to pass through on Wednesday, with severe storms possible. Thunderstorms are likely anywhere from I-35 eastward on Wednesday afternoon, as a dryline slowly moves eastward. This dryline will act as a focus for storm development throughout the afternoon hours. The dryline is expected to stall out across the metroplex just east of I-35, and thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, and just to the east. This means areas like western Tarrant county may not receive any storms, while Collin and eastern Dallas counties could become inundated with heavy rains, winds, and hail. The highest risk of severe storms will exist over much of Arkansas on Wednesday, but severe storm chances stretch from the Gulf Coast, through southern Iowa. Tornado risk across Arkansas will be quite notable on Wednesday, and any parties in this area would need to pay attention to weather forecasts. For north Texas, tornado risks are much lower at this time, but if this changes I will send out an update.

Wednesday brings an elevated fire danger to the western parts of the region, due to very dry air and high winds.

Lastly in support of our countries retail shopping industry, the United States government has decided that this Sunday March 14, we will shift our clocks ahead one hour and become Central Daylight Time (GMT -5). The shift to Daylight Slavings Time (did i say that wrong?) is also a great time to check batteries in your weather radio! I suggest activating it to make sure it still has a signal as well. Since we are now entering our severe weather season, this would be a great precaution to take!

As always, if any notable forecast changes occur then I will do my best to send some updates.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 59 °F, Dew: 41 °F, Humidity: 48%
Wind: 170° at 8km/hr
Sky: Clear

Brief weather news update on a few assorted items… weather in north Texas the past few days has been beautiful and Saturday will continue that pattern. First batch of springtime storms arrive Sunday evening and Monday across the region. Isolated severe is possible, but more likely towards the south.

Only one tornado recorded across the country in February 2010… the year is off to a slow start.
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/03/no-tornadoes-in-february-2010/

Winter 2010 North Texas Thunderbolt Newsletter by the Fort Worth NWS, including a mention of the 10th anniversary of the Downtown Fort Worth March 28, 2000 tornado.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fwd/pdf/ThunderboldWinter2010.pdf

New GOES satellite launches successfully.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100304_satellite.html

Hey folks, looks like all of north Texas will receive some snowfall yet again on Tuesday Feb 23. Counties south of I-20 are currently under a Winter Storm Watch with forecasts estimating 4+ inches of snow, while counties in and north of the metroplex are forecast to receive 1-3 inches. Isolated areas of the southern metroplex could receive 4-5 inches, while areas south of I-20 could receive up to 8 inches! Expect additional Winter Storm Watches and Warnings to be issued Monday morning as this event approaches.

Snowfall for our region will begin around 3am, and last through until 6pm. Temperatures will sit near or at freezing, so accumulations will be light to moderate. Icing will be possible on bridges during the day, while well traveled roadways may not be too adversely affected. Temperatures overnight will reach the high 20s so icing on bridges and untraveled roadways will become likely and hinder travel for Wednesday morning. Temps for Wednesday will reach the mid 40s so accumulations will likely melt clear away.

Some additional things to mention here however… I'm sure alot of you have noticed that this season's snowfall forecasts have been somewhat inaccurate. December 24th's forecast was 1-2 inches, with 3.0 inches actually falling; February 11's forecast was less than 1 inch only 24 hours before the snow began falling, with the end result being 12.5 inches. So, take snowfall estimates with a grain of salt as they tend to be subject to huge errors, and anticipate the worst.

Secondly, DFW airport's winter season snowfall record could easily be broken with this Tuesday's snowfall event. Currently the 2009-2010 season sits at 15.7 inches of snowfall total placing us in the number 2 spot. With just an additional 2.0 inches of snow we would become the snowiest year in Dallas' history!

Finally I will close with a comment from the most recent forecast discussion provided by the National Weather Service: EL NINO WINTERS…YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.

The latest from the National Weather Service, snowfall today now shatters the previous record at DFW Airport. A whopping 7.9 inches 11.2 inches of snow has fallen today 2/11/10, surpassing the previous single calendar day record of 7.8 inches set on 1/15/1964 and 1/14/1917.  The real kicker, snowfall is set to continue for a few more hours! This makes February 11th the snowiest calendar day, and snowiest 24 hour period in the history of DFW Airport. This winter season is now the 4th 3rd snowiest winter on record at 11.1 14.4 inches total. Details below…

...Snow event one for the record books...

At 7 PM...dfw Airport had recorded 7.9 inches of snow today. This
breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches set
in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 11.1 inches...which is
the 4th highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   13.5   1923-24
   4   11.1   2009-10*
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2    7.9   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   3    7.9   February 11, 2010*
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey folks, a significant arctic cold air blast will impact the area beginning tonight around midnight and last through Sunday at least. Air temperatures will fall as low as 11 to 14 degrees around the metroplex, with wind chills below zero! Freezing rain is also possible Wednesday night thru very early Thursday morning.

The arctic cold front originating from as far away as Siberia will plunge through the area late tonight around midnight, sending winds of 10-15mph and temperatures dropping to 22 degrees by sunrise. Freezing rain is possible in a narrow window overnight from maybe midnight to 3am? This could make for some patchy areas of ice on the roadways for Thursday. Temps will struggle to increase during the day, never exceeding 27 degrees. Overnight clear skies will promote strong radiational cooling and temperatures will drop as low as around 11 degrees to the north, 14 in and just south of the metroplex. Winds at this time will create very hazardous wind chill values below zero!

This cold air will persist on Friday as well, with highs once again not exceeding the freezing mark.Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach freezing, and very well could remain below freezing for the entire day on Saturday as well. Sunday will begin to warm up a bit with lows around 27, highs of 45.

Bundle up everyone, this is likely to be the coldest weather in the metroplex since January 2005!

Hey folks… we may see another bout of snowfall to most of north Texas on Tuesday during the day. Current forecasts place us right around within a few degrees of freezing at the start of the event, and just below through the evening and night. This means for around an hour or so Tuesday, the precipitation may fall as rain then transition to snow. Since the ground has been chilled significantly from the Christmas Eve snowfall, there is a chance this precipitation could freeze to open surfaces quicker than it did last week. This means another round of dangerous ice wide spread throughout the area.

Extended forecasts beyond Thursday get a little more difficult. Northern areas may see some light snow flurries on Thursday. Things should dry out and warm up slightly beyond Thursday, for the weekend. Extended forecasts have continuously warned about an extremely frigid air mass that will descend from Siberia, across northern Canada and impact the United States. There are significant discrepancies in this forecast now, but the weather service is concerned about this possibility. If this unfolds as forecast now, we may be looking at significant cold weather, record setting even. Timing on this would likely be maybe 9-10 days out, or sometime after January 5.

I’ll send updates as needed.

Snowfall today is still on track, with around 1-2 inches forecast for Frisco and higher amounts possible north and west of our area.

Snowfall is expected to begin around 11am to noon, while surface air temps may still remain slightly above freezing.

Snowfall will likely persist for several hours until maybe sundown?

Surface air temps will drop around 2 or 3pm below freezing and remain below freezing through Christmas morning. This means that any snowfall that occurs may actually stick around for Christmas morning!

Roadways and travel may become treacherous later today through the overnight after air temperatures drop below freezing. This means bridges and overpasses will begin to accumulate ice and snow first. Again, this will likely begin to cause issues around 2pm today, so afternoon and evening travel will be impaired!

Last minute forecast change here… the very strong low pressure system that was forecast to move over Oklahoma, keeps tracking further south than anticipated. The most recent forecast update now tracks the low pressure system across north Texas, making snow chances on Christmas Eve a likelihood! The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory has been issued mainly due to the high winds also expected behind the cold front. Wind chills will be very low, likely in the teens for Thursday morning. Winds of 30 gusting to 45, will create a very hazardous driving situation with near blizzard like conditions on the roadways. Surface air temperatures and ground soil temps will sit right around or just above freezing, so icing or snow accumulation shouldn’t be a major factor but is still worth mentioning. Temps during the day Thursday will rise to around 40 last I checked, but these high temps may get revised downward since snow is now likely.

Today’s severe weather threat did not materialize for our immediate area, but tornadoes did occur to our east. Tornado damage was reported in the town of Longview, TX which is 113 miles east.

Cold temperatures will persist through the weekend, with freezing temperatures nightly. The next storm system may move through this upcoming Monday or Tuesday with a chance of winter precipitation, however this forecast has somewhat low confidence at this time.

Forecast update for the next few days… Severe thunderstorms possible east of I-35 from midnight Wednesday morning thru Wednesday night, with best chances around 6pm. Discrete thunderstorms with hail and a tornado or two are possible, however the highest risk area will remain just to our south and east.

For Thursday, Christmas Eve… Temperatures will rapidly drop after the front’s passage overnight Thursday morning with temps in the 40s. Snow is possible to our north in Oklahoma City and other areas in that region. The severe weather continues eastward towards Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

On Friday, Christmas day, Temperatures plummet to the mid 20s for lows, low 40s for highs. Remaining snow from Thursday’s storms to our north may still remain on the ground for most of the day Friday, making for a white Christmas in Oklahoma City.

I will send out updates if needed for Wednesday’s potential severe weather.

Looks like our region will receive some active weather again after a quiet stretch… A rather vigorous low pressure system is currently moving over the Rockies, and will move over central Oklahoma during the day Wednesday. A dry line and cold front will wrap around the southern flank of this circulation and provide some focus for storm development. Southern winds that began today will continue to transport moisture northward and bring our dew points to around 60 by Wednesday. Upper level winds, lapse rates, moisture, and forcing from the dry line and cold front are all sufficient for severe thunderstorm development. Best chances of severe weather will be Wednesday from about 6pm through midnight.

Storm mode will initially begin as discrete thunderstorms around the DFW metroplex and south towards Houston, which could develop into supercells. The best chance of these types of storms exists along and east of the I-35 corridor. The storms will eventually evolve into a squall line as it moves into eastern Texas. These storms are most likely to produce large hail, and a chance of tornadoes. Severe winds for our area are possible, but not as likely as hail. The arklatex region to our east will receive the brunt of severe activity as instability, shearing and moisture will be at its peak when the cold front arrives. Tornadoes and severe winds are most likely in the region near Shreveport, and along east Texas/west Louisiana.

No winter precipitation is anticipated for our immediate area with this as the coldest air will arrive after the moisture has left, however areas in relatively close proximity will likely receive snow. Most of Oklahoma and parts of the Red River valley in Texas will receive some snowfall, with portions of north central and north west Oklahoma getting a quite notable snowstorm. Along the I-35 corridor between DFW and Oklahoma City, expect rough travel on Thursday and Friday morning. Rain will switch to snow right around sunset in this area and likely add snow accumulation on top of water which will become ice. Snow in Oklahoma will likely stay on the ground for a good portion of Friday as temps will only reach 34 degrees.

I will send updates out as needed.