Watching the Skies

Looks like the storm has lost most of its strength after heavy upper level wind shearing and cooler water temperatures in the gulf. The storm has already created about 5 feet of storm surge in eastern New Orleans, areas outside the hurricane flood control systems. The storm will continue to weaken and make a hard right turn just after landfall, impacting south Alabama, south Georgia, and the Florida panhandle.

-- Weather in Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport when posted --
Temp: 64.4 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 93%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Now that the heaviest rains are beginning to exist the Metroplex as they move east, I will send a brief update on tonight’s severe weather impacts. Only a few reports of high winds around the area, none of them reporting any damage so far. Several large hail reports in Parker, Tarrant, Denton and Cooke counties. One report of lightning striking a home in Trenton, 30 miles NE of Frisco, though damage is unknown at this time. Flooding impacts however are notable… several high water rescues have been reported in Fort Worth due to flooding rains stranding motorists or entering houses. Extreme north Collin county shows an estimated 6.24 inches of rainfall in the last 5 hours! The city of Celina, just 12 miles north of Frisco is embedded in a swath of the heaviest rains, reporting flood waters entering houses as well. There are also some road closures due to high waters south, and west of McKinney.

Attached is rainfall estimates since 6:22pm Sunday 10/25. You can see the area 2.5 miles north of Weston, or extreme north Collin and south Grayson counties showing up to 6.24 inches of rain. This is a result of several thunderstorms training across this area. Frisco by comparison is estimated around 1.17 inches, and only 19 miles south of the heaviest rainfall.

Since moving to Frisco Texas a year ago I have seen the terminology ‘In Texas it takes a flood to end a drought’ used quite a few times, now I understand why that phrase is quite accurate. So far for the month of October DFW Airport has recorded 7.09 inches of rainfall, placing us 4.12 inches above normal. Currently this October is ranked the 8th rainiest and we still have 8 calendar days left to go. The number 1 rainiest October beats all others by a very large margin at 14.18 inches in 1981 so we are likely not to break this record. However we are in striking distance of the number 2 spot which is 9.44 inches set in 1919. With at least two to three more rain days in the forecast this month we very well make the number two spot. On a side note, average temperatures this month are below normal with the October 2009 average being 65.0 and the October normal temp of 68.4. I will try to find out cloud cover percentages of this month vs normal and vs records later on… its a bit harder to find that info.

Precipitation totals for the year are also well above normal… At this time precipitation is at 36.32 inches since Jan 1, or 7.87 inches above normal. Normal annual rainfall is 37.05 inches so if we received no additional rainfall the rest of the year, we would be only 0.73 inches below normal.

The rainfall from Wednesday made up a significant portion of this month’s totals with the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth receiving the most rain at 5.81 inches. Most locations received 3 to 4 inches of rainfall during Wednesday. Some river and stream flooding is still occurring at this time including the Trinity River in Dallas, and the Denton creek near Justin. The Trinity River in Dallas is currently sitting at 36.4 feet, or 6.4 feet above flood stage.

Regarding the drought conditions in central and southern Texas… the recent rainfalls have made significant improvements to lessening the drought impacts to our south, and virtually eliminated drought conditions in all of north Texas. A small area of coastal south Texas around Corpus Christi is still in the ‘Exceptional’ drought classification, the highest possible. This area however is very tiny, in comparison to just 3 months ago when over 20% of Texas was in an Exceptional drought status. With current climate forecasts showing the weak El Nino conditions persisting throughout winter and thus above average precipitation for our region, I would expect nearly all drought in Texas to be wiped out in the next few months.

With any drought or unusual dryness you have to consider large fire impacts as well… With the abundant rainfall in the late growing season for Texas, vegetation will sprout new growth before going dormant after the first hard freeze. The hard freeze tends to dry out plant life and create excellent fuel for large wildfires during the winter and early spring. However the above average rainfall forecast for this Winter should dampen any wide spread fire impacts. Due to this, the winter looks to present a relatively low hazard for wildfires.

This information is considered ‘preliminary’ from the National Weather Service, and obtained directly from the website for NWS Fort Worth at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 51.8 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 58%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Several Flash Flood Warnings are issued for Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Grayson, Cooke and other counties around the area. A band of very heavy rainfall has fallen creating flooding conditions most notably around Fort Worth where several high water rescues have been taking place after motorists get stranded in high waters. Additionally the Trinity river at Dallas is surpassing flood stage at this time, and is forecast to exceed flood stage by 4 feet. At 34 feet several low water crossings will flood. This heavy rainfall will continue for a few more hours at least until the cold front passes through Thursday before sunrise. The rain will likely come to an end sometime around 3am to 5am I am thinking. Until then, plan for continuous heavy rain and flash flooding potential.

Here is the storm total rainfall amounts so far, this is since 1:21am Wednesday morning. Blue areas are reaching up to 5.8 inches of rainfall. The green polygons indicate current Flash Flood Warnings, the green and blue FFL icons indicate reports of Flash Flooding including road closures and high water rescues.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 60.8 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

A band of moderate to heavy rainfall is sitting stationary just south and east of the DFW Metroplex, prompting Flash Flood Warnings and even a high water rescue in the city of Terrell.  Rain totals in these areas since 6 pm Monday are around 2.25 inches estimated, showing that the soil is so heavily saturated and unable to absorb any more rainfall.

Below is radar estimated rainfall since 6pm Monday, you can easily see the areas where rainfall is most concentrated… the Green FFL icons indicate reports of Flash Flooding, the green polygons show current Flash Flood Warnings.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 64.4 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Rainfall is coming to an end for today as the cold front sinks further to the southeast. Flooding isn’t as wide spread or severe as anticipated likely due to the lack of rainfall during the day Thursday, as had been previously forecast. Temperatures for the next several days will be significantly cooler, including lows in the mid 40s the next two nights! Saturday and Sunday look to have partly cloudy skies, highs in the mid 60s and lows from mid 40s to low 50s.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 53.6 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

Heavy rains and Severe Thunderstorms are probable during the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The entire region is still under a Flash Flood Watch with around 2.5 inches of rain forecast the next 36 hours. Additionally the SPC in Oklahoma has our area under a ‘Slight’ severe storm risk with the main risk being severe winds. The local weather service noted in their forecast discussions that this is an event to take seriously. Flooding potential with this storm is quite high.

COPIOUS MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH. IN MY MEMORY…I HAVE NOT SEEN PWAT/S THIS
HIGH…ESPECIALLY IN FALL…WITHOUT SEEING THE OCCURRENCE OF
FLASH FLOODING. FEEL THAT THIS IS AN EVENT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

At this time we are in a 30% severe wind, 15% severe hail, and 2% tornado risk. The most likely time for these storms appears to be just before or around midnight. Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours today as well, but the bulk of the severe activity is set around midnight… this is subject to change however.

Again flash flooding is a very likely possibility over the next 36 hours… flooding may be as bad or worse than any event we have seen since moving out to Texas a year ago.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 75.2 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 94%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the DFW Metroplex including Frisco, from 1pm Thursday through 7pm Friday. The area’s waterways and soil is already very saturated, plus when you factor in the upcoming forecasts, conditions begin to scream Flash Flood. The weather service compared the forecast event to events that happened October 14-15 2007 and October 18-19 2002. Both events saw abnormally high amounts of rainfall resulting in flooding, high water rescues, stranded vehicles etc. The weather service is forecasting a possibility of 4 inches of rainfall accumulation over our area.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 60.8 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 72%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth put together a storm summary for the very active weather pattern from June 10 through June 14, including the Tornadoes in Denton County that prompted the warning for Frisco. I didn’t realize there was actually tornado damage reported in The Colony too, the only areas I heard of damage was from Roanoke, Trophy Club and Flower Mound. The Colony is Frisco’s western neighbor and only 3 miles away from downtown Frisco! At this time it appears that three separate tornado touchdowns occurred, the strongest being eF-1 in Flower Mound.

…SUMMARY OF STORM IMPACTS FROM JUNE 10 THROUGH JUNE 14…

AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SERIES OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS…EVEN BY NORTH
TEXAS STANDARDS…IMPACTED THE AREA FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON OF JUNE
10 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF JUNE 14. BASED ON RADAR
DATA…STORM SPOTTER REPORTS…AND COORDINATION WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS…HERE IS A BRIEF PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF THE STORM IMPACTS.

JUNE 10…
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
MOVED EAST. THE STORMS ORGANIZED INTO A BOW ECHO JUST WEST OF THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND PRODUCED EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS.
NUMEROUS 70-80 MPH WIND GUSTS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN PARKER…
SOUTHERN WISE…NORTHERN TARRANT…SOUTHERN DENTON…NORTHERN
DALLAS…AND SOUTHERN COLLIN COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE METROPLEX.

WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS…AT LEAST THREE BRIEF
TORNADOES OCCURRED. SPOTTERS OBSERVED THE TORNADOES FROM ROANOKE TO
TROPHY CLUB AT APPROXIMATELY 640 PM…IN FLOWER MOUND AT ROUGHLY 650
PM…AND IN THE COLONY-HEBRON AT ROUGHLY 705 PM. THE ROANOKE AND
COLONY TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE RATED EF-0…WHILE THE FLOWER MOUND
TORNADO WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN EF-1 RATING. FURTHER INVESTIGATION
MAY REVEAL ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADOES WITHIN THE DAMAGE SWATH.

JUNE 11…
THE STORMS FROM THE EVENING OF JUNE 10 LEFT BEHIND AN AREA OF
RAIN-COOLED AIR. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND THE
WARM HUMID AIR SAGGED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WARM MOIST
AIR WAS FORCED UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY…RESULTING IN A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OF JUNE 11. MORE THAN THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL FROM JACK
COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO HENDERSON COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FROM
NORTHERN TARRANT TO KAUFMAN COUNTY…WITH MORE THAN EIGHT INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF DALLAS COUNTY. THE RESULTING HEAVY RAIN CAUSED
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE AREA.

A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN AREA…FROM EASTLAND COUNTY SOUTHWARD. LARGE HAIL FELL
FROM NEAR CISCO TO NORTH OF LAMPASAS…WITH THE HAIL REACHING
BASEBALL SIZE IN LAMPASAS COUNTY.

JUNE 12…
A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN JACK COUNTY AND
MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE STORM PRODUCED AT LEAST TWO CONFIRMED
TORNADOES…WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH…AND HAIL LARGER THAN
BASEBALLS. THE TORNADOES WERE APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH OF
JACKSBORO JUST BEFORE 530 PM…AND JUST WEST OF PERRIN AT AROUND 550
PM. DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS AND ROOFS RESULTED…AND THESE WILL
LIKELY BE RATED AS EF-1.

AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH WESTERN PARKER COUNTY…POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IMPACTED AREAS NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF COOL…AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WEATHERFORD. THE STORM UPROOTED TREES AND DESTROYED
STORAGE BUILDINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE STORM CONTINUED PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS INTO JOHNSON…HOOD…AND BOSQUE
COUNTIES.

TO THE SOUTHWEST…A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED INTO COMANCHE
AND MILLS COUNTIES. HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WAS REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

JUNE 13-14…
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE
EVENING OF JUNE 13. THE STORMS MOVED INTO YOUNG AND MONTAGUE
COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH MOVED
THROUGH THE NOCONA AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT JUNE 14. A LARGE
TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN WEST OF NOCONA…AND ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED IN
NOCONA.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE INVESTIGATING THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED IN UPDATED
STATEMENTS AND POSTED TO OUR WEBSITE. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION…
VISIT /LOWER CASE/ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the metroplex including Frisco, until 6:00pm tonight. Sorry I have not been able to send out emails regarding today’s storm threat more frequently… I really need to program my weather radio to warn me for my county only since Dallas and Tarrant counties have been in continuous severe storm warnings and flash flood warnings, my radio was going off every 15 minutes the entire night, so no sleep for me.

Anyways, todays severe weather threat persists from yesterday as it looks like a stalled boundary of some form sits parked right across the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This has generated a series of training severe storms across the central of the metroplex, areas inside downtown Dallas and just to the north like Highland Park, and into Mesquite have received a radar estimated 11 inches! This means if you are traveling around the metroplex, be very aware of flash flooding and significant street flooding.

I noticed on the short drive to work, numerous tree limbs downed from last nights storms including at least 8 inch diameter limbs snapped at the base of the tree. Very impressive, usually that indicates 60+ mph winds.

Today’s storm risks are 5% tornado, 30% hail with 10% risk of significant severe hail, 30% wind risk.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN
TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 374…

DISCUSSION…ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FORMING THIS MORNING OVER N TX
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT N OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AIR
MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-3000
J/KG LATER TODAY.  THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE STORM GROWTH INTO A
SEWD-MOVING MCS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 69.8 °F, Dew: n/a, Humidity: 100%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a