Agriculture is still suffering as soil moisture is still fairly low for the entire region, plus warmer than normal temps the past few weeks are causing substantial evaporation rates. Thankfully the region’s water reservoirs are mostly above 90% conservation, meaning there is plenty of water for the region to make it through summer without mandatory water restrictions. An amazing fact that I did not know, afternoon temperatures of 100 degrees can evaporate just as much water out of Lake Lewisville daily as all of Collin County uses in the same time period! That is 250 million gallons each, meaning possibly half a billion gallons are removed from Lake Lewisville every day, wow!

Long term climate forecasts show a fairly typical or possibly drier than normal Summer for north Texas. Anytime from maybe mid July through end of August at least is forecast to be very hot and mostly rain free. There is still a possibility of rain from now through mid July, including a cold front that will affect the area Monday-ish(7/6/09).

Areas west of Fort Worth in Palo Pinto, Stephens and Young counties are still in D1 drought designation, which simply means ‘Abnormally Dry’. Large areas of central Texas (to our south, areas around Austin) however are in a D4 classification which means ‘Exceptional Drought’, the most severe classification. Exceptional droughts are the type that have a return period of a half-century! For comparison, if you remember the extreme drought talks revolving around south Tennessee and Atlanta, Georgia running out of water last year, I only noticed them listed under a D3 classification.

Map showing the current drought classifications across the country. Note that Florida is now out of official drought classifications due to a rainy May and June. Good thing too, central Florida has been in either D1 or D2 status for a few years now.

Detailed information released by the National Weather Service regarding drought information in North Texas:

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

...CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT RE-INTENSIFIES...

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SYNOPSIS...

MAY AND JUNE WERE AMONG THE DRIEST ON RECORD IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE DROUGHT HAS BEEN LARGELY UNINTERRUPTED SINCE THE
SUMMER OF 2008. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) HAS BEEN EXPANDED...AND
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) HAS RETURNED TO MILAM COUNTY. THE MOST
INTENSE CATEGORY...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS RESERVED FOR EVENTS WITH A
RETURN PERIOD OF A HALF CENTURY.

THE RECENT AREA OF CONCERN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) REMAINS ACROSS YOUNG...
STEPHENS...AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES. THANKS IN PART TO ADEQUATE
SPRING RAINFALL (AND A DELUGE THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE)...NEARLY HALF
OF THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY CURRENTLY HAS NO
DROUGHT DESIGNATION.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE AREAS STILL IN DROUGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED THIS SUMMER...AND THE CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST. FORTUNATELY...NEARLY EVERY NORTH TEXAS LAKE IS
ABOVE 80 PERCENT CONSERVATION...WITH MOST OVER 90 PERCENT. EVEN
CENTRAL TEXAS RESERVOIRS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.

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SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS

BY THE END OF JUNE...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF NORTH TEXAS FARMLAND HAD
ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE. THE WORST IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE THE CORN CROP IS STRUGGLING WITH EXTRAORDINARY HEAT.
ALTHOUGH GENERALLY DROUGHT RESISTANT...SORGHUM IS ALSO STRESSED.
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING CONTINUES IN AREAS WHERE FORAGE IS DEPLETED OR
OTHERWISE INADEQUATE.

FIRE DANGER

THE ABUNDANT EARLY SPRING RAINS GOT THE GROWING SEASON OFF TO A
BOOMING START...BUT NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SAW BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING MAY AND JUNE. THE TURN OF FORTUNE WAS PARTICULARLY
NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MANY AREAS BETWEEN I-35 AND I-45
RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE LAST TWO MONTHS
COMBINED.

THE DRY VEGETATION HAS BECOME A CONCERN AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
FESTIVITIES APPROACH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE VIGILANT ABOUT FIRE
USAGE. ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN BANS AND AERIAL FIREWORKS RESTRICTIONS.
EVEN WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILDFIRES CAN QUICKLY
START WHERE SUMMER VEGETATION IS DORMANT. SEVERAL NEW BURN BANS WERE
ENACTED DURING JUNE...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 14 IN THE NWS FORT WORTH
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. MOST OF THE NEW ADDITIONS WERE IN CENTRAL
TEXAS.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

ON JUNE 10 AND 11...TORRENTIAL RAINS FELL IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES WERE RECORDED IN CENTRAL DALLAS.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN EVENT...AND
STRUGGLED THROUGH A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

CENTRAL TEXAS WAS PARTICULARLY HARD HIT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UNDER AN INCH IN THE LAST 60 DAYS. WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT
WENT 33 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BEFORE THE
STREAK WAS BROKEN ON JUNE 30. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN THORNTON
(LIMESTONE COUNTY) RECORDED 10.42 INCHES OF RAIN IN APRIL...BUT ONLY
0.05 INCHES IN JUNE. WITHIN THE EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE AMASSED DEFICITS OF 20
INCHES SINCE LAST SUMMER.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

RIDGING ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LONE STAR
STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. AS A RESULT...THE 6-10 DAY AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (FOR EARLY TO
MID JULY) HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BOTH WOULD ASSURE
FURTHER EVAPORATION...TAXING VEGETATION AND AREA RESERVOIRS. FADING
SOIL MOISTURE IS A POSITIVE FEEDBACK IN THE PROCESS...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL WARMING.

STRONG PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE RARELY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS...AND NONE ARE PRESENT BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE WELL ENTRENCHED CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT
WILL ABATE BEFORE AUTUMN.

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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE RESERVOIR GAINS THAT FOLLOWED THE HEAVY RAINS OF EARLY JUNE WERE
LARGELY ERASED BY THE HOT WEATHER DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH.
ON THE HOTTEST OF DAYS...EVAPORATION ALONE CAN SKIM A HALF-INCH FROM
THE SURFACE OF A LAKE. FROM LAKE LEWISVILLE...THAT EQUATES TO A
QUARTER OF A BILLION GALLONS. THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO THE TOTAL WATER
USAGE IN COLLIN COUNTY ON A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
CONTINUATION OF HOT WEATHER WILL ALLOW BOTH USAGE AND EVAPORATION TO
TAKE THEIR TOLL ON NORTH TEXAS WATER RESOURCES. THANKFULLY...MOST
RESERVOIRS WERE ABOVE 90 PERCENT CONSERVATION AT THE BEGINNING OF
JULY.

                               RESERVOIR DATA - JULY 2, 2009

                         NORMAL     POOL     DEFICIT/    PERCENT OF
                          POOL     HEIGHT    SURPLUS    CONSERVATION

RED RIVER BASIN
  LAKE TEXOMA             619.0    618.92     -0.08          99
  PAY MAYSE LAKE          451.0    451.27     +0.27         101
  JIM CHAPMAN LAKE        440.0    439.42     -0.58          96

TRINITY RIVER BASIN
  LAKE BRIDGEPORT         836.0    827.46     -8.54          73
  EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE     649.0    645.15     -3.85          83
  LAKE WORTH              594.0    591.73     -2.27          80
  LAKE BENBROOK           694.0    692.58     -1.42          93
  LAKE RAY ROBERTS        632.5    632.50      0.00         100
  LAKE LEWISVILLE         522.0    521.67     -0.33          98
  LAKE GRAPEVINE          535.0    532.82     -2.18          90
  LAKE LAVON              492.0    491.31     -0.69          97
  LAKE RAY HUBBARD        435.5    435.34     -0.16          99
  JOE POOL LAKE           522.0    521.48     -0.52          97
  BARDWELL LAKE           421.0    419.78     -1.22          92
  NAVARRO MILLS LAKE      424.5    423.82     -0.68          94
  CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR   322.0    321.63     -0.37          98
  RICHLAND CHAMBERS       315.0    311.83     -3.17          88

BRAZOS RIVER BASIN
  POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE    1000.0    996.18     -3.82          86
  PROCTOR LAKE           1162.0   1156.67     -5.33          57
  BELTON LAKE             594.0    591.22     -2.78          91
  STILLHOUSE HOLLOW       622.0    620.15     -1.85          95
  LAKE GRANBURY           693.0    690.59     -2.41          86
  LAKE WHITNEY            533.0    523.33     -9.67          21
  AQUILLA LAKE            537.5    536.46     -1.04          90
  WACO LAKE               462.0    461.68     -0.32          99
  LAKE LIMESTONE          363.0    361.74     -1.26          92

IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE ADEQUATE TO HANDLE SUMMER DEMAND.
NONETHELESS...MANY JURISDICTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY
CONSERVATION. EVEN IF FORMAL WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN
PLACE FOR YOUR AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER
USAGE. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...WHEN EVAPORATION
LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JULY
OR EARLY AUGUST.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/DROUGHT.HTML
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION
SERVICE PROVIDE ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS
TO THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC
STATEWIDE SUMMARIES THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS SECTION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV