Watching the Skies

Hey Texans, it’s been a bit since I sent out the last e-mails. However, being a severe weather enthusiast, my days brighten when your days darken.(maybe a new catch phrase?) Anyways, our first batch of spring time storms moved through the area Sunday and Monday. They even produced the first two spring time tornadoes of the year in western Oklahoma.

Another batch of thunderstorms is set to pass through on Wednesday, with severe storms possible. Thunderstorms are likely anywhere from I-35 eastward on Wednesday afternoon, as a dryline slowly moves eastward. This dryline will act as a focus for storm development throughout the afternoon hours. The dryline is expected to stall out across the metroplex just east of I-35, and thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, and just to the east. This means areas like western Tarrant county may not receive any storms, while Collin and eastern Dallas counties could become inundated with heavy rains, winds, and hail. The highest risk of severe storms will exist over much of Arkansas on Wednesday, but severe storm chances stretch from the Gulf Coast, through southern Iowa. Tornado risk across Arkansas will be quite notable on Wednesday, and any parties in this area would need to pay attention to weather forecasts. For north Texas, tornado risks are much lower at this time, but if this changes I will send out an update.

Wednesday brings an elevated fire danger to the western parts of the region, due to very dry air and high winds.

Lastly in support of our countries retail shopping industry, the United States government has decided that this Sunday March 14, we will shift our clocks ahead one hour and become Central Daylight Time (GMT -5). The shift to Daylight Slavings Time (did i say that wrong?) is also a great time to check batteries in your weather radio! I suggest activating it to make sure it still has a signal as well. Since we are now entering our severe weather season, this would be a great precaution to take!

As always, if any notable forecast changes occur then I will do my best to send some updates.

Brief weather news update on a few assorted items… weather in north Texas the past few days has been beautiful and Saturday will continue that pattern. First batch of springtime storms arrive Sunday evening and Monday across the region. Isolated severe is possible, but more likely towards the south.

Only one tornado recorded across the country in February 2010… the year is off to a slow start.
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/03/no-tornadoes-in-february-2010/

Winter 2010 North Texas Thunderbolt Newsletter by the Fort Worth NWS, including a mention of the 10th anniversary of the Downtown Fort Worth March 28, 2000 tornado.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fwd/pdf/ThunderboldWinter2010.pdf

New GOES satellite launches successfully.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100304_satellite.html

Hey folks, looks like all of north Texas will receive some snowfall yet again on Tuesday Feb 23. Counties south of I-20 are currently under a Winter Storm Watch with forecasts estimating 4+ inches of snow, while counties in and north of the metroplex are forecast to receive 1-3 inches. Isolated areas of the southern metroplex could receive 4-5 inches, while areas south of I-20 could receive up to 8 inches! Expect additional Winter Storm Watches and Warnings to be issued Monday morning as this event approaches.

Snowfall for our region will begin around 3am, and last through until 6pm. Temperatures will sit near or at freezing, so accumulations will be light to moderate. Icing will be possible on bridges during the day, while well traveled roadways may not be too adversely affected. Temperatures overnight will reach the high 20s so icing on bridges and untraveled roadways will become likely and hinder travel for Wednesday morning. Temps for Wednesday will reach the mid 40s so accumulations will likely melt clear away.

Some additional things to mention here however… I'm sure alot of you have noticed that this season's snowfall forecasts have been somewhat inaccurate. December 24th's forecast was 1-2 inches, with 3.0 inches actually falling; February 11's forecast was less than 1 inch only 24 hours before the snow began falling, with the end result being 12.5 inches. So, take snowfall estimates with a grain of salt as they tend to be subject to huge errors, and anticipate the worst.

Secondly, DFW airport's winter season snowfall record could easily be broken with this Tuesday's snowfall event. Currently the 2009-2010 season sits at 15.7 inches of snowfall total placing us in the number 2 spot. With just an additional 2.0 inches of snow we would become the snowiest year in Dallas' history!

Finally I will close with a comment from the most recent forecast discussion provided by the National Weather Service: EL NINO WINTERS…YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.

February 11, 2010 broke the all-time snowfall record for any calendar day and any 24-hour period with 11.2 inches of snow, as of midnight. This surpasses the previous daily record of 1.4 inches on Feb 11, 1988. This also exceeds our 24-hour record of 7.5 inches on Feb 17, 1978 and Feb 25, 1924. Lastly this breaks our greatest calendar-day snowfall total of 7.8 inches from January 15, 1964 and January 14, 1917.

Thursday’s snowfall has brought our seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches, the 3rd snowiest winter on record for DFW. Had there been no other snowfall events this entire season, our winter would have still made the top five snowiest, wow! Below are snowfall totals reported as of 11:30pm 2/11/10.

The impacts from this snowfall will be felt quite heavily the morning of Friday February 12th with heavy snowfall accumulations on area roads, plus icing on roadways and bridges. Afternoon temperatures for Friday have been revised downward to 38 degrees. This means snow will melt significantly but not all of it will melt before re-freezing overnight through Saturday. Expect icing conditions Saturday morning as well. Saturday high temps will reach the 50s and any remaining snow will melt off.

Additionally, I walked around and snapped some great pictures with my camera this evening. I have attached the updated gallery below.

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Public Information Statement issued by the National Weather Service as of Midnight 2/12/10:

...Snow event one for the record books...

At midnight...dfw Airport had recorded 11.2 inches of snow today.
This breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches
set in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 14.4 inches...which is
the 3rd highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   14.4   2009-10*
   4   13.5   1923-24
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2   11.2   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2   11.2   February 12, 2010*
   3    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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The latest from the National Weather Service, snowfall today now shatters the previous record at DFW Airport. A whopping 7.9 inches 11.2 inches of snow has fallen today 2/11/10, surpassing the previous single calendar day record of 7.8 inches set on 1/15/1964 and 1/14/1917.  The real kicker, snowfall is set to continue for a few more hours! This makes February 11th the snowiest calendar day, and snowiest 24 hour period in the history of DFW Airport. This winter season is now the 4th 3rd snowiest winter on record at 11.1 14.4 inches total. Details below…

...Snow event one for the record books...

At 7 PM...dfw Airport had recorded 7.9 inches of snow today. This
breaks the previous daily record for February 11 of 1.4 inches set
in 1988. This also breaks the previous 24-hour record for
February...7.5 inches on February 17, 1978 and February 25, 1924.

This is the greatest calendar-day snowfall total on record for
Dallas/Fort Worth. The previous record was 7.8 inches on January 15,
1964 and January 14, 1917.

This brings the seasonal snowfall total to 11.1 inches...which is
the 4th highest seasonal total on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. This
is the snowiest winter in 32 seasons (since 1977-1978).

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Dallas/Fort Worth - snowiest seasons

   1   17.6   1977-78
   2   15.3   1963-64
   3   13.5   1923-24
   4   11.1   2009-10*
   5   10.4   1976-77
   6    9.5   1909-10
   7    9.2   1916-17
   8    8.8   1947-48
   9    8.1   1937-38
  10    7.3   1965-66
        7.3   1941-42

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Dallas/Fort Worth - most snow in February

   1   13.5   1978
   2    7.9   2010*
   3    7.5   1924

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Dallas/Fort Worth - greatest 24-hour snowfall totals

   1   12.1   January 15-16, 1964
   2    8.2   January 14-15, 1917
   3    7.9   February 11, 2010*
   4    7.5   February 17, 1978
        7.5   February 25, 1924
   6    6.0   March 13, 1924
   7    5.5   December 9, 1898
   8    5.0   November 22, 1937
        5.0   January 5, 1910
  10    4.7   November 13, 1976

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Some images from my Flickr of this record breaking snowfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

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Brief snowfall update, time is limited so I will provide a narration, courtesy of the National Weather Service…
6.2 inches of snow so far at DFW airport, and counting. Today is snowiest 24-hour period on record since February 17, 1978.
Snowfall totals for today now increased up to 9 inches, with isolated areas of 10 inches!

Hey folks, a significant arctic cold air blast will impact the area beginning tonight around midnight and last through Sunday at least. Air temperatures will fall as low as 11 to 14 degrees around the metroplex, with wind chills below zero! Freezing rain is also possible Wednesday night thru very early Thursday morning.

The arctic cold front originating from as far away as Siberia will plunge through the area late tonight around midnight, sending winds of 10-15mph and temperatures dropping to 22 degrees by sunrise. Freezing rain is possible in a narrow window overnight from maybe midnight to 3am? This could make for some patchy areas of ice on the roadways for Thursday. Temps will struggle to increase during the day, never exceeding 27 degrees. Overnight clear skies will promote strong radiational cooling and temperatures will drop as low as around 11 degrees to the north, 14 in and just south of the metroplex. Winds at this time will create very hazardous wind chill values below zero!

This cold air will persist on Friday as well, with highs once again not exceeding the freezing mark.Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach freezing, and very well could remain below freezing for the entire day on Saturday as well. Sunday will begin to warm up a bit with lows around 27, highs of 45.

Bundle up everyone, this is likely to be the coldest weather in the metroplex since January 2005!

Record snowfall today at DFW Airport of 0.2 inches, breaking the previous record of a trace.

…Record daily maximum snowfall set at Dallas/Fort Worth…

A record snowfall of 0.2 inches was set at dfw Airport today. This
is the first measurable snowfall on record for December 29. Trace
snowfall amounts were previously recorded on this date in 1925…
1954…and 1969.

Hey folks… we may see another bout of snowfall to most of north Texas on Tuesday during the day. Current forecasts place us right around within a few degrees of freezing at the start of the event, and just below through the evening and night. This means for around an hour or so Tuesday, the precipitation may fall as rain then transition to snow. Since the ground has been chilled significantly from the Christmas Eve snowfall, there is a chance this precipitation could freeze to open surfaces quicker than it did last week. This means another round of dangerous ice wide spread throughout the area.

Extended forecasts beyond Thursday get a little more difficult. Northern areas may see some light snow flurries on Thursday. Things should dry out and warm up slightly beyond Thursday, for the weekend. Extended forecasts have continuously warned about an extremely frigid air mass that will descend from Siberia, across northern Canada and impact the United States. There are significant discrepancies in this forecast now, but the weather service is concerned about this possibility. If this unfolds as forecast now, we may be looking at significant cold weather, record setting even. Timing on this would likely be maybe 9-10 days out, or sometime after January 5.

I’ll send updates as needed.