Watching the Skies

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for nearly all of North Texas, until 3:00pm today. A developing line of thunderstorms is approaching from the west, currently located from Mineral Wells through Wichita Falls. This line already has embedded severe thunderstorms, and will continue to gain intensity as it travels twards the DFW Metroplex. Today's primary risks are large hail and winds, the tornado threat today is very low and will likely not be an issue for our area. Timing on these storms, best guess i can make right now will be anywhere from 10:00am to noon for arrival in DFW.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STEPHENVILLE TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION…TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HOUR OVER NW TX…ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN NM UPR
VORT.  AS UPR VORT CONTINUES ENEWD…AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
MOISTENS AHEAD OF IT…STORMS MAY BUILD SWD INTO CNTRL TX…AND
POSSIBLY NWD TO THE RED RVR.  POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FOR SVR SFC
WINDS AND HAIL AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25050.

…CORFIDI

Hey Texans, it’s been a bit since I sent out the last e-mails. However, being a severe weather enthusiast, my days brighten when your days darken.(maybe a new catch phrase?) Anyways, our first batch of spring time storms moved through the area Sunday and Monday. They even produced the first two spring time tornadoes of the year in western Oklahoma.

Another batch of thunderstorms is set to pass through on Wednesday, with severe storms possible. Thunderstorms are likely anywhere from I-35 eastward on Wednesday afternoon, as a dryline slowly moves eastward. This dryline will act as a focus for storm development throughout the afternoon hours. The dryline is expected to stall out across the metroplex just east of I-35, and thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, and just to the east. This means areas like western Tarrant county may not receive any storms, while Collin and eastern Dallas counties could become inundated with heavy rains, winds, and hail. The highest risk of severe storms will exist over much of Arkansas on Wednesday, but severe storm chances stretch from the Gulf Coast, through southern Iowa. Tornado risk across Arkansas will be quite notable on Wednesday, and any parties in this area would need to pay attention to weather forecasts. For north Texas, tornado risks are much lower at this time, but if this changes I will send out an update.

Wednesday brings an elevated fire danger to the western parts of the region, due to very dry air and high winds.

Lastly in support of our countries retail shopping industry, the United States government has decided that this Sunday March 14, we will shift our clocks ahead one hour and become Central Daylight Time (GMT -5). The shift to Daylight Slavings Time (did i say that wrong?) is also a great time to check batteries in your weather radio! I suggest activating it to make sure it still has a signal as well. Since we are now entering our severe weather season, this would be a great precaution to take!

As always, if any notable forecast changes occur then I will do my best to send some updates.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 59 °F, Dew: 41 °F, Humidity: 48%
Wind: 170° at 8km/hr
Sky: Clear

Hey folks, looks like all of north Texas will receive some snowfall yet again on Tuesday Feb 23. Counties south of I-20 are currently under a Winter Storm Watch with forecasts estimating 4+ inches of snow, while counties in and north of the metroplex are forecast to receive 1-3 inches. Isolated areas of the southern metroplex could receive 4-5 inches, while areas south of I-20 could receive up to 8 inches! Expect additional Winter Storm Watches and Warnings to be issued Monday morning as this event approaches.

Snowfall for our region will begin around 3am, and last through until 6pm. Temperatures will sit near or at freezing, so accumulations will be light to moderate. Icing will be possible on bridges during the day, while well traveled roadways may not be too adversely affected. Temperatures overnight will reach the high 20s so icing on bridges and untraveled roadways will become likely and hinder travel for Wednesday morning. Temps for Wednesday will reach the mid 40s so accumulations will likely melt clear away.

Some additional things to mention here however… I'm sure alot of you have noticed that this season's snowfall forecasts have been somewhat inaccurate. December 24th's forecast was 1-2 inches, with 3.0 inches actually falling; February 11's forecast was less than 1 inch only 24 hours before the snow began falling, with the end result being 12.5 inches. So, take snowfall estimates with a grain of salt as they tend to be subject to huge errors, and anticipate the worst.

Secondly, DFW airport's winter season snowfall record could easily be broken with this Tuesday's snowfall event. Currently the 2009-2010 season sits at 15.7 inches of snowfall total placing us in the number 2 spot. With just an additional 2.0 inches of snow we would become the snowiest year in Dallas' history!

Finally I will close with a comment from the most recent forecast discussion provided by the National Weather Service: EL NINO WINTERS…YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.

Brief snowfall update, time is limited so I will provide a narration, courtesy of the National Weather Service…
6.2 inches of snow so far at DFW airport, and counting. Today is snowiest 24-hour period on record since February 17, 1978.
Snowfall totals for today now increased up to 9 inches, with isolated areas of 10 inches!

Update to the expected snowfall for Thursday. Forecasters with the National Weather Service and computer models have had a hard time trying to pinpoint what would happen with this event. Even at the start of this snowfall event, forecasts for snowfall accumulation and road hazards are hard to pin down. Current thinking on this situation now pushes our snowfall totals up towards 3-4 inches, with a small chance of isolated higher amounts. Snow should begin falling overnight tonight, with heavier snowfall reaching the ground by mid-day and afternoon.

Temperatures at surface level will hover at or above freezing, so initial snowfall will melt, and possibly create a minor slush issue. As the snowfall progresses however, accumulation will begin and roads will become hazardous. Thursday evening commute home will be difficult. Temperatures will drop below freezing after sunset, and all the water and slush will quickly freeze, icing over roads. Friday morning commutes will likely be extremely difficult with area roads likely to be completely iced over. Temperatures during the day Friday will increase to 43 degrees, and likely melt any accumulated snow or ice.

Currently the area is under a Winter Weather Advisory for this event, but there is a possibility if conditions degrade beyond the current forecast, that a Winter Storm Warning would be issued. I will send out updates as I can for this…

Sorry for the short notice on this, timing has been precious lately so this one will be short. A brisk cold front will blow through today dropping temps into the mid 20s overnight, freezing any water that could not evaporate to exposed surfaces. This will cause a notable icing hazard tonight, most likely after midnight thru Tuesday morning. Winds will be strong as well, wind chills will be hazardous so wear your heavy jackets.

Snow potential just got bumped up a few notches for Thursday, with now 1-3 inches forecast for the Metroplex. This is comparable to the Christmas Eve snowfall with 3.0 inches recorded at DFW Airport. Snow will begin during the day Thursday as a rain/snow mix, then quickly transition to all Snow. The ground will remain above freezing at first, but accumulations will begin within a few hours, along with notable icing. Travel Friday morning will also be hazardous, but any remaining ice or snow should melt away in the afternoon.

Below is a statement from the NWS about the approaching winter weather.

…Cold tonight then wintry weather expected across much of North
Texas early Thursday into Thursday night…

A strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight with
north winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph. All of the precipitation
will have moved east of the area by the time temperatures fall to
below freezing during the overnight hours. Low temperatures will
fall to between 24 and 29 degrees across most of North Texas…so
any residual water on area roads will likely freeze. Patchy ice is
likely to form during the overnight and early morning
hours…making roads slick. Wind chills will be in the low teens
early Tuesday morning.

Another storm system will approach the area by midweek while
temperatures remain cold across the region. It appears at this
time that sufficient moisture will move northward in advance of
this system for snowfall to occur across much of North Texas
during the day Thursday into Thursday evening. While there is
still some uncertainty as to the speed and track of the evolving
system…which could significantly affect the thermal profile
favorable for snow production…overall confidence in this storm
system is increasing.

Areas north of a Killeen to Waco to Athens line appear to have
the best chance for accumulating snows during the day Thursday.
Temperatures at the surface will be at or slightly above freezing
at the onset of the event…which means that snow will likely melt
initially…then accumulate as heavier bands develop. At this time
it appears that accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible.
Uncertainty in the exact track and speed of this system could
significantly affect snowfall accumulation totals.

Residents of North Texas and motorists traveling across the
region on Thursday should stay informed of the latest weather
information and forecasts by visiting our website at
www.Weather.Gov/fortworth

Winter weather may be a bit delayed from forecasts 24 hours ago, but parts of the metroplex may still see ice, sleet, and snow today. Currently the freezing line stretches from Weatherford, to Decatur, to Montague. This freezing air will slowly filter towards the east and generate hazardous driving conditions for the afternoon, thru Saturday mid-day.  Looks like Frisco will be right on this freezing line as of 2pm, so expect ice accumulation on bridges and other exposed areas first, followed by sleet/snow accumulation on other areas later tonight. There is a possibility of maybe an inch of sleet to snow accumulation. While during the day today I would not expect any significant accumulation, tonight the temperature will drop significantly towards 23 degrees and any water will likely freeze to the ground quickly. Pay attention to bridges during the day, and be very careful while driving tonight on all area roads after sundown.

…Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM CST this
evening…

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for sleet and snow…which is in effect until 6
PM CST this evening.

Temperatures will continue to fall to near or below freezing
by the early afternoon hours. At the same time…an upper level
disturbance will approach from the west and provide lift for
precipitation. Precipitation is expected to transition from light
rain or freezing rain…to sleet and snow by early afternoon. Snow
and sleet accumulations of one to two inches are possible in the
advisory area through 6 PM.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of winter
precipitation may cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and plan on some travel delays.

Some accumulations of snow are possible…especially on elevated
surfaces. Bridges and overpasses will be the first locations where
icy spots may develop…travel with caution.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving through the region at 50mph from the west. These storms are producing very strong winds exceeding 60mph along with some pea to dime sized hail. Storms are currently stretching from Cleburne, to Fort Worth, to Decatur. These storms will reach Denton by 3:50pm, Frisco and Dallas by 4:25pm. These storms are also producing some lightning… in the unlikely event that you are conducting any outdoor activities now, then prepare for this storm. North Central Texas is also under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7:00pm, this watch includes Dallas and Tarrant counties, but not Collin or Denton.

A strong winter storm is set to affect the southern plains late this week, bringing heavy snow to the Texas panhandle and all of Oklahoma. This same storm system will affect north Texas as well with heavy rains likely, and winter precipitation possible.

Thursday afternoon through midnight will bring rainfall as warm moist air transports northward interacting with an approaching cold front. Heavy rains are likely for the second half of Thursday and flooding of low areas may be a concern.

As the front passes through, a slow transition phase will begin around Thursday midnight thru Friday morning. Rainfall will begin to slow and likely switch to just a light freezing rain for Friday morning thru mid-day. Temperatures for Friday will remain very cold with highs barely escaping freezing, topping out near 35 degrees. Winds will also pick up, wind chills will dip into the teens again, so wear a heavy coat. Cloud cover forecasts for the day Friday are a bit hard to determine, but as of right now the official forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies. This means icing will probably be something to consider Friday thru Saturday. Snowfall is still possible across the area Friday mid-day thru early afternoon, but the rain/mix/snow line will be right across our region and makes this somewhat hard to forecast specifically. The specific track of this low pressure system will have a great influence on our weather… if the low tracks 30 miles south of the forecast then we get snow, if it tracks to the north then we get rain only. I will provide updates if needed.

In any event, I would plan for winter precipitation with icing being the major factor for Friday morning. The icing problem will likely persist through Saturday mid-day.

Temperatures Friday will not exceed 35 degrees, with lows Saturday morning reaching 20 degrees. Saturday will remain cold with highs around 40. Sunday morning temps will be around 25 degrees, afternoon temps warm slightly up to 47. Another chance of rain will occur on Sunday evening thru Monday, but no winter weather or severe weather is forecast at this time. So its looking like the best day this weekend will be Sunday in the afternoon. Otherwise icing, windy and cold conditions will deter most outdoor activities.

As always if anything interesting or substantial changes, I will send out an update!

Hey everyone, its been awhile but there also hasn't been much interesting weather in the region until now. Today the eastern half of north Texas is under a 'Slight' risk for severe storms, with the best risk being severe hail. Storms are capable of developing anytime after 3pm when an atmospheric cap erodes, but with the thick cloud cover these storms may not initiate until around 6pm. Best chances of severe storms exist along and east of I-35, which includes Frisco. For our region, the risks include a minimal tornado risk at 2% risk, severe wind risk at 15%, and severe hail risk at 30%.