Watching the Skies

An interesting statement from our local weather forecast office… funnel clouds are possible this afternoon due to favorable atmospheric conditions. Tornadoes are not likely however.

A low pressure system feeding a very rich band of tropical moisture from near the equator will pass over north Texas the next two or three days. This system will very likely bring heavy rainfall, and some flash flooding may be possible. The low pressure interestingly enough evolved from a small cluster of thunderstorms which developed last week over the Texas caprock. The low has meandered around Texas since then, catching a hold on rich tropical moisture. Rainfall estimates for the DFW Metroplex range from 2-3 inches likely, with pockets of 4 inches possible.

The rainfall will be very much welcomed, after our below average May rainfall. With the onset of La Nina coming this summer, we can use all the rainfall we can get right now. The heaviest rain will occur Wednesday and Thursday likely during the night time. However rainfall will be possible all day on both days.

You wont see me use the word 'outbreak' very often, especially when it is in reference to a forecast. Tomorrow's severe weather potential however has good likelihood to become a severe weather outbreak, with the SPC already issuing a 'Moderate' risk for the northern half of DFW, through central Oklahoma. Very large hail is forecast, along with a very favorable environment for tornadoes. The storm mode is expected to begin as discreet or semi-discreet supercells along NW Texas and SW Oklahoma, which could eventually converge into a broken line of severe thunderstorms along the Red River. Current forecasts show the best tornadic potential right along the Red River, however favorable tornado conditions exist around the entire region including DFW.

Above shows the SPC's Day 2 outlook. You can see the moderate risk area encompasses the DFW metroplex as well as portions of Oklahoma.

I will actually be storm chasing this weather event, so I may not be very forthcoming on local weather updates. Keep an eye on the news or an ear to your weather radio on Wednesday.

Hey folks, sorry I have not been to forthcoming on weather information as of late… I am in the midst of moving, which takes up every ounce of free time I have. A round of strong to borderline severe storms are moving through the metroplex right now, with one of these strong storms headed through Lewisville on its way towards Frisco. These storms have very high winds approaching 55mph, which is nearly at the severe criteria. After the initial batch of strong storms, expect moderate to heavy rains to continue throughout the day. 2 inches of rain today can be expected, with some isolated spots receiving up to 5 inches.

Texans, severe weather season is gearing up to give us a show through the weekend! First round of storms will begin Friday morning through about noon. Plentiful moisture already in place, interacts with a eastward moving dryline and kicks off some strong thunderstorms. The worst of the storms will actually remain around the Mississippi river valley away from us. In our area, the primary risks will be the standard large hail and damaging straight line winds. I do not see a notable tornado risk for Friday at this time.

While the dryline may move through the metroplex around noon, thunderstorm chances will persist throughout the entire day. Thunderstorms will still be possible throughout the night Friday and all day Saturday. Storm chances should evaporate Sunday and make for a good weather day. Beyond Sunday, the forecast is a bit difficult and there may or may not be additional storms on Monday. I will try to send updates out as needed later.

Texas weather seems to only be marginally accurate out to 6 hours, beyond that its anyone guess it would seem. Today's storms did not materialize as anticipated during the day, however a retreating cold front and approaching trough mean round two of severe weather potential is upon us! A cluster of severe thunderstorms has already developed south of DFW, building twards the NNE. The storms are expected to continue growth for the next few hours and appear likely to affect most of the DFW metroplex overnight tonight. Large hail is the primary risk, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As I write this, a radar indicated tornado just developed 20 miles NW of Waco, so anything seems possible tonight!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1115 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PMUNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST OFSHERMAN TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.  FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TOSEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORTA THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 24035. 

Brief update… severe storm potential still in the works today, however the bulk of the severe will now reside just east of the metroplex. A dryline will move across the region during the day, acting as a focus for some severe weather development. The primary risks will be high winds, followed by large hail. The tornado risk here today is minimal. Timing brings the storms across the area from west to east beginning now in western parts of the metroplex, around noon for the bulk of the region, then afternoon hours for the east. Severe potential increases as the day progresses, so the best severe chances will exist in the east.

Strong winds and a fire hazard exist for Saturday across north Texas. Additionally, a slight chance of thunderstorms exists across the eastern parts of north Texas on Saturday afternoon.

A strong low pressure system currently located over the Texas panhandle will send a dryline through the region Saturday mid-day, increasing winds and posing a fire weather hazard. This dryline will act as a focus for some isolated thunderstorms that may develop in the afternoon east of I-35. These storms are likely to form just east of the immediate DFW Metroplex, so most of us will likely experience just dry and windy conditions in the afternoon. However storms that do develop will rest in an environment that could be supportive of strong to severe storms, and would be worth keeping an eye on.

Weather Saturday morning may be mostly cloudy or overcast, but quickly switch to clear skies after the dryline passes around noon. The rest of the day should remain clear, dry, and windy. The next 5 days including Sunday appear to remain dry and finally bring about a warming trend, with temps finally reaching 80 degrees by Thursday.

However Friday brings around our next significant storm system, with computer models already picking up on a good shot of severe weather for Friday afternoon or evening. Exact timing or locations of severe weather is hard to determine this far out, but computer models are all in good agreement that with plentiful moisture available, this storm system has alot of severe potential already. I will keep an eye on this developing situation and send updates as needed.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of north central Texas, including the DFW metroplex, expiring at 10pm.
Thunderstorms are developing inside a destabilizing air mass along a cold front moving eastward. The storms arrival now brings it through the region within the next 2 or so hours, or before 5:30 to 6:00pm. Hail remains the primary risk, but severe winds are also a possibility. Tornado threats still remain low.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF WEST CENTRAL  AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DALLAS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION…STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN TX.  AIR MASS HAS SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED
WITH HEATING TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH THE 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY CONTINUE E/NE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL…HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON…ACCOMPANIED BY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Current forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center and our local weather forecast office have mentioned a severe storm risk for Wednesday late afternoon through evening.

Currently the computer models agree on the location for storm initiation across the western parts of north Texas near Wichita Falls through Breckenridge at 4 to 6pm. The storms will progress eastward throughout the evening, switching from a ’surface’ based storm to a more ‘elevated’ structure. What this means for us is that tornado risk decreases, while hail and wind risk remains the same. Computer models differ in regards to timing of these storms moving through the metroplex, but current thinking suggests approximately midnight. The environment will still remain supportive of severe thunderstorms at this time, so I would plan for some potentially severe weather in the form of hail and winds. The storms will continue eastward throughout all of north Texas and clear the region by sunrise Thursday.

Clearing skies with slightly cooler temps will spread over the area for Thursday and Friday. The next storm system will move through the region Saturday afternoon and evening, with a very similar setup as Wednesday. However there will be less moisture available Saturday, so storms will likely be less intense.