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Watching the Skies > Watching the Skies - Blog
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| This is my blog, I discuss relevant weather issues, current events, record reports, etc. |
12/27/2008
he NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of
southwest Arkansas
northwest Louisiana
north central and northeast Texas
Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 740 am until
200 PM CST.
Tornadoes...hail to 1.5 inches in diameter...thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.
The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 105 statute
miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of
Paris Texas to 10 miles east southeast of Temple Texas. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (wous64 kwns wou1).
Remember...a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Other watch information...continue...ww 957...ww 958...ww
959...ww 960...
Discussion...tstms expected to increase along and ahead of
ewd-moving cold front in N TX as associated upr vort...now entering
W TX...continues enewd. Although strongest forcing for ascent may
pass N of the Red River...combination of weak sfc heating and weakly
confluent flow expected to Foster development. Strength of shear
/0-1 km values aoa 40 kt/ and rich moisture inflow suggest potential
for tornadoes...despite modest mid lvl lapse rates and likely
quasi-linear predominant convective Mode.
Aviation...tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
450. Mean storm motion vector 24050.
12/26/2008
This is a followup to yesterday... Looks like the bulk of the severe weather will remain just to our north along the eastern half of Oklahoma and western part of Arkansas. The DFW area including Frisco is still included in the 'Slight' severe storm risk area however. The timing has been pushed back a bit now, looks like storms are possible still anytime after sundown, but the best chances of severe storms will be anytime after midnight.
Tornado risk shown above, the hatched area means an elevated risk zone.
There is a slight risk for tornadoes in our area still... currently the SPC has us in a 5% risk zone. This means that there is a 5% chance of a tornado developing within 25 miles of any given point. In the far eastern flank of Oklahoma this risk is 10%, which can be classified as a moderate risk. The DFW area including Frisco is also in a 15% severe wind and 15% severe hail risk zone.
The local NWS office in Fort Worth issued the following wind advisory for today:
...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM CST this afternoon...
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Wind
Advisory...which is in effect until 5 PM CST this afternoon.
South winds 20 to 30 mph...with gusts in excess of 35 mph are
expected through this afternoon. Winds should diminish somewhat
and just before dark...or 5 PM CST.
A Wind Advisory means strong winds can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles traveling on east to west
oriented roads and highways. Boaters should use extra caution when
venturing onto area lakes. Residents should take action to secure
trash cans...lawn furniture...and other lightweight outdoor objects
that may be blown around in the strong winds
So be safe everyone! I will provide more updates later as the weather unfolds. But main thing is that the severe risk is mainly between Midnight tonight and sunrise on Saturday Morning!
12/25/2008
Hey Texans, hooray for me and not so much for everyone else I presume with this news. Looks like on Friday we are going to be at the start of another severe weather system as it pushes across the country. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has a fairly good idea what is going to happen with this one...
 Synopsis: This storm system is a developing trough / cold front that is attached to a surface low pressure to our north. This cold front will be colliding with an unseasonably moist airmass that is traveling north across the Mississippi River Valley due to a mid-level jet. This combination is creating good wind shear, a high moisture high instability environment, and a good lifting agent as the cold front plows through and undercuts the warmer air. All three of these make for a good severe risk starting with the DFW area and progressing North East. Timing: Currently it looks like the severe threat begins in the late afternoon to mid evening hours, so I would say anytime from 5pm Friday through to maybe 2-3pm Saturday. Best chances of severe weather in the DFW area at this time look to be in the 7pm to midnight time frame on Friday. Considering the high shear environment, the SPC did mention there is a good tornado risk associated. Most likely the storms will develop as semi-discreet storms, and turn into a broken squall line with induvidual supercells. This combo gives us a fair risk of tornaods, and a moderate risk of hail and strong straight-line winds. The severe risk drops down after midnight, but is still present until the entire system clears out of our area around 2-3pm Saturday. On Saturday the main severe risk occurs right along the Mississippi River valley all the way from the Gulf Coast through to Illinois. We are just outside of the risk zone as of this writing. As aways as updates come along, I will forward them. In any event, plan for thunderstorms Friday evening and Saturday morning. If you have any lightweight outdoor furnature then it may be a good idea to stow them in a secure location since high winds may occur with this storm system. 12/22/2008
...Freezing Rain Advisory in effect from 3 am to 9 am CST
Tuesday...
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Freezing
Rain Advisory for light icing...which is in effect from 3 am to
9 am CST Tuesday.
The Freezing Rain Advisory is for that part of North Texas east
of a Sherman to Cleburne line...and north of a Cleburne to Athens
line from 3 am until 9 am. Light freezing rain is expected to
begin late tonight as warm moist air spreads northward over cold
Arctic air at the surface. A light glaze of ice is expected to
form on bridges...overpasses...power lines and other exposed
surfaces until mid morning Tuesday when temperatures warm above
freezing.
A Freezing Rain Advisory means that periods of freezing rain or
freezing drizzle will cause travel difficulties. Slow down and
use caution while driving. Bridges and overpasses will be the
first places that icy spots will develop.
12/16/2008
...Freezing fog advisory in effect until 7 am CST Wednesday...
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a freezing
fog advisory...which is in effect until 7 am CST Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain below freezing most of the night as areas
of fog form. This will result in ice being deposited on exposed and
elevated surfaces. Bridges and overpasses can become very icy
under these conditions.
A freezing fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving...slow down...
use your headlights...and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Also...be alert for icy spots on bridges and overpasses.
12/15/2008
Hey Texans, beware of ice on bridges and other exposed areas tonight and early tomorrow. At this time the NWS office in Fort Worth has reported at least 6 separate instances of Law Enforcement relaying reports of icing on bridges causing multiple accidents spread all around the area, in the last hour. The ground in general is probably still too warm for any ice to accumulate on normal pavement but any bridges will almost certainly have some degree of ice accumulation at this time. If driving tonight, take extra care as tonight is very hazardous!
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 am CST Tuesday...
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for light sleet and freezing rain...which is in effect until
11 am CST Tuesday.
As the Arctic airmass deepens and temperatures continue falling tonight...
patchy...light freezing rain will occur...occasionally mixing with or
changing to light sleet. Accumulations of ice and sleet are expected
to be less than one tenth of an inch.
A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of winter precipitation
may cause travel difficulties. Precipitation will accumulate first on
elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. These will become slick
and hazardous. Be prepared to slow down and use extra caution...as travel
delays may occur.
Hey everyone, im sending this out a bit late but better late than never... As alot of you have probably noticed, we have freezing rain conditions currently. Outside temps are 28 degrees and some light rainfall is passing through the area. Thankfully it seems most of the ground is warm and therefore there is no ice accumulation on most pavement. However car windshields and such are definately frozen over here. The freezing temps will persist for the rest of Monday with some more rain possible later today. Tuesdays temps will have a high and low of around 38 so hopefully no freezing rain except for maybe in the early morning. Temps after Tuesday will increase and not dip into freezing again for the next 5 days at least.
12/13/2008
...A windy day across North Texas...
An intense low pressure system centered over eastern Colorado
resulted in a tight pressure gradient over much of the plains today.
This tight pressure gradient helped strong and gusty winds develop
across North Texas.
Here are some of the maximum wind gusts as of 7 PM today...
-----------------------------------------------------------
Location wind speed /mph/
...............................................
Addison 35
Arlington 43
Breckenridge 43
Comanche 43
Corsicana 33
Dallas executive 39
Dallas Love Field 40
Decatur 38
Denton 51
dfw Airport 48
Fort Hood 37
Fort Worth Alliance 43
Fort Worth Meacham 43
Fort Worth NAS/jrb 36
Fort Worth Spinks 35
Gainesville 52
Gatesville 38
Graham 33
Granbury 37
Grand Prairie 39
Greenville 36
Hamilton 48
Hearne 35
Hillsboro 44
Killeen gray 39
Killeen-skylark 44
Lancaster 38
McKinney 48
Mesquite 37
Midlothian-Waxahachie 38
Mineral Wells 39
Palestine 28
Paris 33
Sherman 44
Stephenville 39
Sulphur Springs 35
Temple 45
Terrell 36
Waco 44
Waco-McGregor 43
12/11/2008
Florida group, looks like your up now for the same storm system that brought tornadoes in Texas (as close as 5 miles away from me), pounded Louisiana and Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia. Currently the severe risk for the Tampa area is very low, but the squall line that is expected to develop will likely be strong, so plan accordingly. The timing will be somewhere in the 7am to Noon range Thursday Morning. The bulk of the severe weather threat will remain further north however. Temps will cool down to around 40 inland on Friday, just under 50 near the coast and highs around 61.
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