Watching the Skies

Looks like a cold front, currently stalled out across the western parts of north Texas, will finally push through the area in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. This cold front will bring rain and some thunderstorms through in the late afternoon to evening. Thunderstorm activity is not expected to be substantial at this time. An isolated strong or weaker severe storm is possible, with primary threat being strong winds. The main limiting factor preventing severe weather development Sunday is weak mid-level lapse rates… meaning the rate of temperature decline with higher altitude is not favorable for severe weather.

After the frontal passage, expect much cooler temperatures and windy conditions. A low pressure system will be passing through north Texas with this cold front and sitting just to our east Monday, which will bring gusty winds, cloudy skies and helping with cold air transport from the northwest. The cloudy skies will begin to clear Monday afternoon and will be gone by Tuesday. The clear skies will help with heat evaporation Tuesday night bringing along some very cool overnight temperatures in the mid 30s!

Sunday afternoon and evening, rain chances sit around 50% with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. Around 1 inch of rain is possible in heavier areas. Aside from maybe some minor water ponding in streets and low laying areas, flooding should not be a concern.

Rain is again possible this upcoming Thursday with one computer model forecasting a rapidly moving cold front passing through the area. Confidence on this solution is low but enough to warrant a 20% chance of rain at this time.

So for the next few days we can expect the following:
Sunday before frontal passage: Some chances of rain, mostly cloudy, highs in the low 70s. rain chances increase in the late afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday evening after frontal passage: Light rain still may be possible, mostly cloudy, fairly breezy and lows in the mid 40s.
Monday: Very breezy and cold, wear moderate or heavy windbreakers! Winds gusting to 30, highs in the low to mid 50s and mostly cloudy.
Monday night: Keep the jackets on, still somewhat breezy and cool. Lows in the upper 30s and partly cloudy.
Tuesday: Mostly clear and light winds, highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday night: Bundle up! Clear, light winds, lows in the mid 30s! A freeze is possible around naturally cooler areas.
Wednesday: Warm up begins, moisture may begin to start returning with southern winds, highs in the upper 50s, lows in the mid 40s.

Forecasts beyond Wednesday are subject to large change, so I will send updates if needed later. At this time however we are looking at a cold front moving through quickly on Thursday, then another cold front Saturday.

-- Weather in Frisco, TX when posted --
Temp: 64.4 °F, Humidity: 79%
Wind: n/a at n/a
Sky: n/a