Watching the Skies

An interesting statement from our local weather forecast office… funnel clouds are possible this afternoon due to favorable atmospheric conditions. Tornadoes are not likely however.

A low pressure system feeding a very rich band of tropical moisture from near the equator will pass over north Texas the next two or three days. This system will very likely bring heavy rainfall, and some flash flooding may be possible. The low pressure interestingly enough evolved from a small cluster of thunderstorms which developed last week over the Texas caprock. The low has meandered around Texas since then, catching a hold on rich tropical moisture. Rainfall estimates for the DFW Metroplex range from 2-3 inches likely, with pockets of 4 inches possible.

The rainfall will be very much welcomed, after our below average May rainfall. With the onset of La Nina coming this summer, we can use all the rainfall we can get right now. The heaviest rain will occur Wednesday and Thursday likely during the night time. However rainfall will be possible all day on both days.

Check out some of these pictures and videos of a storm chase I performed on May 19th. These storms were relatively easy to chase as they moved at about 30mph due east. This allowed me to easily catch up or outrun the storms, as well as being able to stay on the same road for the entire chase.

Chase Mileage: 660 miles
Number of tornadoes seen: 2

I departed from the Dallas Metroplex headed twards Lawton, OK. A new day 1 outlook from the SPC was then issued, which included a ‘High’ risk of severe storms. The high risk area was further north and east of my original target area. I changed my target area to a storm that had initiated and was moving towards Hennessey OK. This was the correct decision, as I arrived in Hennessey just as the storm popped down a large cone tornado! (the video will be forthcoming later).

Next I decided to stay with this storm and travel east along SR-51. This also ended up being the best decision, as the storm ultimately put out a large funnel cloud near Stillwater, OK but didnt quite make it to the ground. Unfortunately I did not see the tornado that damaged mobile homes in Stillwater however. The rest of the chase was spent driving around attempting to target a few other storm cells, but ultimately I was either too far away or the storms sucked in too much cold air.

Either way, it was a good day for tornado viewing. For now, a few videos I was able to get online quickly. I will get the Hennessey OK tornado video online soon.

05-19-10 Oklahoma Tornadoes!

You wont see me use the word 'outbreak' very often, especially when it is in reference to a forecast. Tomorrow's severe weather potential however has good likelihood to become a severe weather outbreak, with the SPC already issuing a 'Moderate' risk for the northern half of DFW, through central Oklahoma. Very large hail is forecast, along with a very favorable environment for tornadoes. The storm mode is expected to begin as discreet or semi-discreet supercells along NW Texas and SW Oklahoma, which could eventually converge into a broken line of severe thunderstorms along the Red River. Current forecasts show the best tornadic potential right along the Red River, however favorable tornado conditions exist around the entire region including DFW.

Above shows the SPC's Day 2 outlook. You can see the moderate risk area encompasses the DFW metroplex as well as portions of Oklahoma.

I will actually be storm chasing this weather event, so I may not be very forthcoming on local weather updates. Keep an eye on the news or an ear to your weather radio on Wednesday.

Hey folks, sorry I have not been to forthcoming on weather information as of late… I am in the midst of moving, which takes up every ounce of free time I have. A round of strong to borderline severe storms are moving through the metroplex right now, with one of these strong storms headed through Lewisville on its way towards Frisco. These storms have very high winds approaching 55mph, which is nearly at the severe criteria. After the initial batch of strong storms, expect moderate to heavy rains to continue throughout the day. 2 inches of rain today can be expected, with some isolated spots receiving up to 5 inches.

Texans, severe weather season is gearing up to give us a show through the weekend! First round of storms will begin Friday morning through about noon. Plentiful moisture already in place, interacts with a eastward moving dryline and kicks off some strong thunderstorms. The worst of the storms will actually remain around the Mississippi river valley away from us. In our area, the primary risks will be the standard large hail and damaging straight line winds. I do not see a notable tornado risk for Friday at this time.

While the dryline may move through the metroplex around noon, thunderstorm chances will persist throughout the entire day. Thunderstorms will still be possible throughout the night Friday and all day Saturday. Storm chances should evaporate Sunday and make for a good weather day. Beyond Sunday, the forecast is a bit difficult and there may or may not be additional storms on Monday. I will try to send updates out as needed later.

Texas weather seems to only be marginally accurate out to 6 hours, beyond that its anyone guess it would seem. Today's storms did not materialize as anticipated during the day, however a retreating cold front and approaching trough mean round two of severe weather potential is upon us! A cluster of severe thunderstorms has already developed south of DFW, building twards the NNE. The storms are expected to continue growth for the next few hours and appear likely to affect most of the DFW metroplex overnight tonight. Large hail is the primary risk, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As I write this, a radar indicated tornado just developed 20 miles NW of Waco, so anything seems possible tonight!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1115 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PMUNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST OFSHERMAN TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.  FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TOSEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORTA THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 24035. 

Hey folks, I have been fighting sleep work and more work since arriving back from Puerto Rico and have had trouble updating my own website! Heres a quick update for now: I am in the process of migrating photo galleries into Picasa Web Albums, including the newest Puerto Rico photos I took. You can view these here: http://picasaweb.google.com/sean.r.toner

Soon I will eventually migrate to yet a new webhost and have a newer better page theme and other improved features to my website. For now however, take a look at my galleries in Picasa Web Albums!

Brief update… severe storm potential still in the works today, however the bulk of the severe will now reside just east of the metroplex. A dryline will move across the region during the day, acting as a focus for some severe weather development. The primary risks will be high winds, followed by large hail. The tornado risk here today is minimal. Timing brings the storms across the area from west to east beginning now in western parts of the metroplex, around noon for the bulk of the region, then afternoon hours for the east. Severe potential increases as the day progresses, so the best severe chances will exist in the east.

Severe thunderstorms still on track for Friday afternoon and evening. Strong forcing, plentiful moisture, and favorable low level wind shear will be supportive of severe thunderstorms. Tornado chances will be enhanced on Friday with the low level wind shearing forecast. However instability may be limited by a persistent cloud deck limiting afternoon heating. If a gap in clouds can develop and heating can initiate instability, then strong storms with tornadoes are a distinct possibility.

As I like to say here, keep watching the skies folks.